FC Midtjylland
vs
St. Truiden
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Midtjylland 2–1 St. Truiden
The model makes it 51% FC Midtjylland, 25% draw, 24% St. Truiden — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 1.93, St. Truiden 1.15.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Midtjylland are 2nd in Superliga on 22 points from 10 games; St. Truiden are 12th in Jupiler Pro League on 8 points from 8 games.
- FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Copenhagen.
- St. Truiden are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to KV Mechelen.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden
FC Midtjylland
- W2-1FC Copenhagen11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
- W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026
St. Truiden
- L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Superliga · Jupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden
FC Midtjylland
GoalsAssists
- F. Etim53
- S. Iheanacho31
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- R. Merlen34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Midtjylland carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.8 for St. Truiden. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for FC Midtjylland and 1.15 for St. Truiden. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Midtjylland rate 0.99 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Truiden rate 1.02 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for FC Midtjylland against 1.15 for St. Truiden. FC Midtjylland's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.13 for St. Truiden.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Midtjylland at home · St. Truiden away
League matches only, this season — FC Midtjylland in the Superliga, St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Midtjylland 10 in the Superliga, St. Truiden 8 in the Jupiler Pro League.
FC Midtjylland score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); St. Truiden have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Midtjylland
- vs Lyngby25 Oct · Superligawin 72%
- at FC Nordsjaelland1 Nov · Superligawin 42%
- vs Ajax5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 39%
St. Truiden
- at Club Brugge KV25 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 12%
- vs OH Leuven1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 54%
- vs Brann5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 55%
- vs Zulte Waregem8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.