Inter Club d'Escaldes
vs
Universitatea Craiova
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Inter Club d'Escaldes 1–2 Universitatea Craiova
The model makes it 23% Inter Club d'Escaldes, 25% draw, 52% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Inter Club d'Escaldes 1.09, Universitatea Craiova 1.87.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Universitatea Craiova are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Csikszereda.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova
Inter Club d'Escaldes
- D0-0Drita27 August 2026
- D2-2away to Drita20 August 2026
- W4-0away to Flora Tallinn13 August 2026
- W2-0Flora Tallinn6 August 2026
Universitatea Craiova
- W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
- W5-0FCSB19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
- W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapid31 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter Club d'Escaldes went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Inter Club d'Escaldes scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Inter Club d'Escaldes kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Inter Club d'Escaldes and Universitatea Craiova in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | Liga I | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 23 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Inter Club d'Escaldes has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Liga I
Leading scorers: Inter Club d'Escaldes and Universitatea Craiova
Inter Club d'Escaldes
No leading scorers listed yet.
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor60
- A. Al Hamlawi40
- S. Nsimba40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Club d'Escaldes carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.81 for Universitatea Craiova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Inter Club d'Escaldes and 1.87 for Universitatea Craiova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Club d'Escaldes rate 0.65 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitatea Craiova rate 0.89 and 0.97.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Inter Club d'Escaldes against 1.87 for Universitatea Craiova. Inter Club d'Escaldes's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.97 for Universitatea Craiova.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Inter Club d'Escaldes
- at FK Crvena Zvezda5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 10%
- vs FC Copenhagen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 22%
- at Getafe10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%
- vs Aarhus17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 31%
Universitatea Craiova
- at Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe24 Oct · Liga Iwin 53%
- vs FC Botosani31 Oct · Liga Iwin 64%
- vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 77%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.