FC Iberia 1999
vs
Mjallby AIF
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Iberia 1999 1–0 Mjallby AIF
The model makes it 44% FC Iberia 1999, 28% draw, 28% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Iberia 1999 1.57, Mjallby AIF 1.14.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Iberia 1999 are 3rd in Erovnuli Liga on 49 points from 28 games; Mjallby AIF are 12th in Allsvenskan on 23 points from 23 games.
- FC Iberia 1999 have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Meshakhte.
- Mjallby AIF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Degerfors IF.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Iberia 1999 vs Mjallby AIF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Iberia 1999 at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Iberia 1999 vs Mjallby AIF
FC Iberia 1999
- W2-1away to Meshakhte10 October 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Tbilisi4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rustavi21 September 2026
- W2-1Dila17 September 2026
- W1-0Spaeri13 September 2026
Mjallby AIF
- D1-1Degerfors IF10 October 2026
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Iberia 1999 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Iberia 1999 and Mjallby AIF in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | Erovnuli Liga | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 49 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | Allsvenskan | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 23 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Erovnuli Liga · Allsvenskan
Leading scorers: FC Iberia 1999 and Mjallby AIF
FC Iberia 1999
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Mjallby AIF
GoalsAssists
- J. Bergström90
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Iberia 1999 carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.32 for Mjallby AIF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for FC Iberia 1999 and 1.14 for Mjallby AIF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.54 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mjallby AIF rate 0.59 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Iberia 1999 the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC Iberia 1999 against 1.14 for Mjallby AIF. FC Iberia 1999's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.69 for Mjallby AIF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Iberia 1999 at home · Mjallby AIF away
League matches only, this season — FC Iberia 1999 in the Erovnuli Liga, Mjallby AIF in the Allsvenskan. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Iberia 1999 28 in the Erovnuli Liga, Mjallby AIF 23 in the Allsvenskan.
FC Iberia 1999 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Mjallby AIF have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Iberia 1999
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi26 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 43%
- at Dinamo Tbilisi31 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 30%
- at FC Copenhagen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 9%
Mjallby AIF
- vs Hammarby FF25 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 22%
- at Orgryte IS29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 41%
- vs Kalmar FF2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.