League Stage - 2 · 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Kaunas

Our model says: Kauno Žalgiris 1–2 Brann

The model makes it 31% Kauno Žalgiris, 26% draw, 43% Brann — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Kauno Žalgiris 1.34, Brann 1.71.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to Brann: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Brann have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Viking.

More Conference League predictions

All Conference League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann

61%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kauno Žalgiris win Draw Brann win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 2–17%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read Kauno Žalgiris first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 46%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Brann at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann

Kauno Žalgiris

  • W1-0Beşiktaş27 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Beşiktaş20 August 2026
  • L1-2Dinamo Zagreb11 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Dinamo Zagreb4 August 2026
  • W1-0KI Klaksvik29 July 2026

Brann

  • L0-2Viking9 October 2026
  • W2-1Bodo/Glimt20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Start13 September 2026
  • L1-2Lillestrom5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Brann failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Brann conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Kauno Žalgiris and Brann in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
7BrannEliteserien2292113934+529

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Kauno Žalgiris has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Eliteserien

Leading scorers: Kauno Žalgiris and Brann

Kauno Žalgiris

No leading scorers listed yet.

Brann

GoalsAssists

  • N. Holm63
  • K. Ingason62

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Kauno Žalgiris carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.66 for Brann. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 1.71 for Brann. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Kauno Žalgiris rate 0.66 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brann rate 0.81 and 1.18.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Brann the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris against 1.71 for Brann. Kauno Žalgiris's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.18 for Brann.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Kauno Žalgiris

  • at FC Lugano5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 9%
  • vs Riga26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%
  • at Egnatia Rrogozhinë10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 35%
  • vs SC Freiburg17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%

Brann

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.