Lincoln Red Imps FC
vs
Twente
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Lincoln Red Imps FC 0–2 Twente
The model makes it 13% Lincoln Red Imps FC, 22% draw, 65% Twente — fair odds of 7.69, 4.55 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps FC 0.72, Twente 2.17.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Twente are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Twente are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fortuna Sittard.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 65% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- W3-0away to Larne27 August 2026
- L0-2Larne20 August 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia13 August 2026
- D1-1Omonia Nicosia6 August 2026
- D0-0Mjallby AIF28 July 2026
Twente
- D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln Red Imps FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lincoln Red Imps FC had two goals or fewer.
- Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Lincoln Red Imps FC and Twente in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | Eredivisie | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Lincoln Red Imps FC has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Eredivisie
Leading scorers: Lincoln Red Imps FC and Twente
Lincoln Red Imps FC
No leading scorers listed yet.
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Lincoln Red Imps FC carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.95 for Twente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.72 goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 2.17 for Twente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lincoln Red Imps FC rate 0.51 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Twente rate 0.98 and 0.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC against 2.17 for Twente. Lincoln Red Imps FC's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/0.82 for Twente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- vs HNK Hajduk Split5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 24%
- at Egnatia Rrogozhinë26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 26%
- vs FC Midtjylland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%
- at Monaco17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%
Twente
- at AZ Alkmaar25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- at Excelsior1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 45%
- vs Pafos5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.