FK Jablonec
vs
Brighton
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FK Jablonec 0–2 Brighton
The model makes it 20% FK Jablonec, 25% draw, 55% Brighton — fair odds of 5.00, 4.00 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 0.97, Brighton 1.92.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Brighton are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FK Jablonec are 6th in Czech Liga on 17 points from 10 games; Brighton are 3rd in Premier League on 13 points from 6 games.
- FK Jablonec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Zbrojovka Brno.
- Brighton are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Sunderland.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Jablonec vs Brighton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Brighton
FK Jablonec
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
Brighton
- W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FK Jablonec and Brighton in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 |
| 3 | Brighton | Premier League | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 13 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Czech Liga · Premier League
Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Brighton
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß34
- M. De Cuyper22
- C. Kostoulas21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.62 against 7.14 for Brighton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.92 for Brighton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.74 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brighton rate 1.35 and 0.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.92 for Brighton. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.35/0.76 for Brighton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FK Jablonec at home · Brighton away
League matches only, this season — FK Jablonec in the Czech Liga, Brighton in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FK Jablonec 10 in the Czech Liga, Brighton 6 in the Premier League.
FK Jablonec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Brighton have let in 2 there.
Brighton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); FK Jablonec have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FK Jablonec
- at Hradec Králové25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 30%
- vs Slavia Praha31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 16%
- at Riga5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 53%
Brighton
- at Liverpool25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Manchester City28 Oct · League Cupwin 20%
- at Manchester City31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- at Getafe5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.