Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
vs
AS Marsa
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0-0 AS Marsa.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, 27% draw, 27% AS Marsa — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1.62, AS Marsa 1.09.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Model insights: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 22O. Hanzouli
- 5S. Marouani
- 12M. Souissi
- 20S. Hammami
- 27B. Mgannem
- 30H. Kouki
- 8A. Jouini
- 19M. Ben Amor
- 6A. C. Chinonso
- 9B. Touati
- 11O. Belhaj
- 1W. Karoui
- 4K. Othmani
- 15A. Gharbi
- 25M. Jammel
- 10G. Ben Hamida
- 7S. Abdelli
- 17C. Zoughlami
- 28M. Askri
- 33H. Guezmir
- 16H. Ben Cherifia
- 5O. Bahri
- 17O. Jebali
- 34M. Kechiche
- 6K. Khalfa
- 8A. Gasmi
- 28A. Ben Hamida
- 2M. Chaouch
- 7F. Iffia
- 10M. Hamrouni
- 18N. Mani
- 1M. Ben Braiek
- 4A. Wadud
- 12Y. Boukhris
- 20F. Meskini
- 13A. Traidi
- 21O. Adejoh
- 24O. Mejri
- 25Y. Dao
- 30K. Maacha
Form going into Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
- W1-0ES Metlaoui13 September 2026
- D1-1away to ES Sahel6 September 2026
- W3-1ES Tunis30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer22 August 2026
AS Marsa
- W1-0ES Sahel12 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Tunis6 September 2026
- D0-0Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer29 August 2026
- L0-1away to CA Bizertin23 August 2026
What these results say
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane had two goals or fewer.
- AS Marsa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for AS Marsa had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa
- 11 October 2026Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–0 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 12 May 2026Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2–2 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 22 November 2025AS Marsa 2–1 Jeunesse Sportive OmraneLigue 1
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.22 for AS Marsa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and 1.09 for AS Marsa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane rate 0.57 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AS Marsa rate 0.49 and 1.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeunesse Sportive Omrane the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane against 1.09 for AS Marsa. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.75 for AS Marsa.