Regular Season - 5 · 11 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse Ligue 1 prediction & result

Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, Zarzis
Full time2 – 0

Final score: ES Zarzis 2-0 ES Hammam-Sousse.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% ES Zarzis, 23% draw, 17% ES Hammam-Sousse — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: ES Zarzis 2.10, ES Hammam-Sousse 0.90.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse

52%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 11%1-0 10%1-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts ES Zarzis at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ES Zarzis99%Draw1%ES Hammam-Sousse0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
J. Moussa
38'
J. Moussa
38'
J. Moussa
🔁Y. El Kassahout: A. Garreb
46'
🔁S. Toujout: Y. Laariadh
46'
🔁H. Mounadiout: A. Tajourii
46'
46'
🔁O. Martinout: A. Chaabane
⚽M. Jertila
47'
M. Jertila
48'
S. Diouf
52'
Y. Laariadh
58'
61'
🔁M. Baayouout: O. Tenguiano
61'
🔁T. Ben Zitounout: A. Jaziri
⚽H. Labidiassist: A. Tajourii
70'
H. Labidi
70'
🔁M. Smaaliout: O. Toure
73'
🔁K. Soweout: Y. Dhiflaoui
78'
79'
🔁M. A. Jarrayaout: A. Hssine
79'
🔁A. Chaabaneout: A. Moataz

Line-ups

ES Zarzis
  • 22S. Charfi
  • 25J. Belkilani
  • 29S. Diouf
  • 30S. Touj
  • 35H. Mounadi
  • 17D. Nyengue
  • 20M. Smaali
  • 26Y. El Kassah
  • 7H. Labidi
  • 9K. Sowe
  • 10M. Jertila
Substitutes
  • 32H. Ghanmi
  • 3A. M. Yassine
  • 28L. Rjili
  • 4A. Toure
  • 6O. Toure
  • 11A. Garreb
  • 15A. Oluwaseun
  • 18Y. Dhiflaoui
  • 27A. Tajourii
Coach: Moncef Mcharek
ES Hammam-Sousse
  • 30M. Hazgui
  • 2N. El Beji
  • 3G. Abderrazzak
  • 5J. Moussa
  • 29M. A. Helal
  • 20M. Baayou
  • 6Figo
  • 11M. A. Jarraya
  • 13M. Sassi
  • 24O. Martin
  • 33T. Ben Zitoun
Substitutes
  • 32C. Nasreli
  • 4O. Tenguiano
  • 17R. Ouni
  • 15A. Moataz
  • 23A. Jaziri
  • 34I. Houli
  • 8A. Hssine
  • 19A. Chaabane
  • 22M. Ben Salah

Form going into ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse

ES Zarzis

  • L0-1away to Club Africain20 September 2026
  • L1-2US Monastirienne16 September 2026
  • L1-2away to CS Sfaxien29 August 2026
  • W1-0Olympique Béja23 August 2026

ES Hammam-Sousse

  • L1-3Stade Tunisien12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to ES Metlaoui6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Africain29 August 2026
  • D0-0US Monastirienne22 August 2026

What these results say

  • ES Zarzis failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Zarzis scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Zarzis conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Hammam-Sousse did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • ES Hammam-Sousse failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Hammam-Sousse conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10ES Zarzis52035506
16ES Hammam-Sousse501417-61

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse

  • 11 October 2026ES Zarzis 2–0 ES Hammam-SousseLigue 1
  • 29 May 2022ES Zarzis 1–1 Hammam-SousseLigue 1
  • 18 May 2022Hammam-Sousse 1–1 ES ZarzisLigue 1
  • 22 April 2021Hammam-Sousse 2–1 ES ZarzisLigue 2
  • 20 March 2021ES Zarzis 3–1 Hammam-SousseLigue 2
  • 14 February 2021Hammam-Sousse 2–1 ES ZarzisLigue 2

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.10 goals for ES Zarzis and 0.90 for ES Hammam-Sousse; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: M. Jertila 47' (ES Zarzis), H. Labidi 70' (ES Zarzis).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ES Zarzis the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for ES Zarzis against 0.90 for ES Hammam-Sousse. ES Zarzis's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.08 for ES Hammam-Sousse.