Olympic El Qanah
vs
Al Masry
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Olympic El Qanah 1–0 Al Masry
The model makes it 36% Olympic El Qanah, 31% draw, 33% Al Masry — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olympic El Qanah 1.24, Al Masry 1.14.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Olympic El Qanah and Al Masry are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Olympic El Qanah vs Al Masry
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympic El Qanah at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olympic El Qanah vs Al Masry
Olympic El Qanah
- L1-2away to Masr17 September 2026
- D1-1El Geish7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Wadi Degla1 September 2026
- D1-1El Gouna FC28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Ceramica Cleopatra23 August 2026
Al Masry
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Petrojet7 September 2026
- L0-1Pyramids FC31 August 2026
- W3-2away to El Mokawloon27 August 2026
- W1-0Smouha SC22 August 2026
What these results say
- Olympic El Qanah failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympic El Qanah scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympic El Qanah conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Masry conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Masry | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Olympic El Qanah and Al Masry
Olympic El Qanah
- M. Wayo3 goals
Al Masry
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olympic El Qanah carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.34 for Al Masry. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Olympic El Qanah and 1.14 for Al Masry. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympic El Qanah rate 0.61 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Masry rate 0.65 and 1.83.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympic El Qanah the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Olympic El Qanah against 1.14 for Al Masry. Olympic El Qanah's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.83 for Al Masry.