Regular Season - 5 · 11 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Olympique de Sousse, Sousse
Full time0 – 1

Final score: ES Sahel 0-1 CS Hammam-Lif.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% ES Sahel, 28% draw, 29% CS Hammam-Lif — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: ES Sahel 1.46, CS Hammam-Lif 1.10.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif

52%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts ES Sahel at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ES Sahel0%Draw7%CS Hammam-Lif93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
M. Ben Tiba
10'
⚽C. Fradj
🔁M. Senghorout: R. Gara
46'
🔁M. Chaabaniout: E. Oscar
46'
52'
A. Boukeba
65'
🔁M. Ben Tibaout: T. Laabidi
65'
🔁H. Mhamdiout: Y. Chamakhi
🔁P. Lanquetinout: K. Eduwo
75'
🔁R. Ananeout: A. Amri
75'
84'
A. Boukeba
84'
A. Boukeba
88'
🔁N. Sangareout: A. S. Berete
90'
M. Ben Cherifia
O. Abid
90+8'

Line-ups

ES Sahel
  • 16S. Ben Hessen
  • 2W. Kechrida
  • 5P. Lanquetin
  • 14N. Ferjani
  • 15B. Diarra
  • 8O. Abid
  • 25O. Diakhate
  • 7A. Ben Dhiaf
  • 9M. Chaabani
  • 29M. Senghor
  • 30R. Anane
Substitutes
  • 36R. Gazzeh
  • 33H. Dagdoug
  • 10A. Amri
  • 22A. Zorgati
  • 26M. Hassine
  • 34R. Gara
  • 17N. Smichi
  • 20E. Oscar
  • 28K. Eduwo
CS Hammam-Lif
  • 40M. Ben Cherifia
  • 5A. Koudhai
  • 10H. Ghrairi
  • 12H. Mhamdi
  • 15C. Fradj
  • 23F. Ben Ammar
  • 26B. Sellami
  • 6N. Sangare
  • 25W. Barhoumi
  • 7M. Ben Tiba
  • 11Z. Ben Salem
Substitutes
  • 1I. Ben Mansour
  • 2A. Abassi
  • 13A. Boukeba
  • 14A. S. Berete
  • 18T. Laabidi
  • 29I. Dridi
  • 9M. Mejri
  • 19Y. Chamakji
  • 21R. Kamergi

Form going into ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif

ES Sahel

  • L0-1away to AS Marsa12 September 2026
  • D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane6 September 2026
  • W2-1ES Metlaoui30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to ES Tunis23 August 2026

CS Hammam-Lif

  • L0-1away to US Ben Guerdane20 September 2026
  • L0-1ES Tunis13 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer5 September 2026
  • L0-1CA Bizertin30 August 2026

What these results say

  • ES Sahel conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • ES Sahel failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Sahel scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • CS Hammam-Lif did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • CS Hammam-Lif failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
  • CS Hammam-Lif conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12ES Sahel511357-24
13CS Hammam-Lif510414-33

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif

  • 11 October 2026ES Sahel 0–1 CS Hammam-LifLigue 1
  • 5 September 2020CS Hammam-Lif 1–0 Etoile DU SahelLigue 1
  • 11 December 2019Etoile DU Sahel 4–0 CS Hammam-LifLigue 1
  • 7 March 2019Etoile Du Sahel 2–1 CS Hammam-LifLigue 1
  • 31 October 2018CS Hammam-Lif 0–1 Etoile Du SahelLigue 1
  • 19 February 2017CS Hammam-Lif 0–0 Etoile DU SahelCup

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.46 goals for ES Sahel and 1.10 for CS Hammam-Lif; the game produced 0 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: C. Fradj 10' (CS Hammam-Lif).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ES Sahel the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for ES Sahel against 1.10 for CS Hammam-Lif. ES Sahel's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.58 for CS Hammam-Lif.