Olympiakos
vs
Aris
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Olympiakos 2–1 Aris
The model makes it 42% Olympiakos, 28% draw, 30% Aris — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Olympiakos 1.66, Aris 1.22.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Olympiakos are 10th on 4 points from 4 games; Aris are 8th on 5 points from 4 games — 1. Division.
- Olympiakos are unbeaten in their last 4 (0 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Omonia Aradippou.
- Aris have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Karmiotissa.
- Last 6 meetings: Aris 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 January 2026, ended Olympiakos 0–0 Aris.
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Olympiakos vs Aris
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olympiakos vs Aris
Olympiakos
- D1-1away to Omonia Aradippou20 September 2026
- D3-3Omonia 29is Maiou13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Pafos7 September 2026
- D3-3Nea Salamis28 August 2026
Aris
- D0-0Karmiotissa20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Krasava Ypsonas14 September 2026
- L1-4Omonia Nicosia7 September 2026
- D2-2Apollon Limassol29 August 2026
What these results say
- Olympiakos went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Olympiakos did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Olympiakos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aris failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aris scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Olympiakos | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Aris | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos vs Aris
- 4 January 2026Olympiakos 0–0 Aris1. Division
- 15 September 2025Aris 2–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 16 December 2022Olympiakos 0–0 Aris1. Division
- 2 September 2022Aris 5–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 3 December 2021Aris 1–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 22 August 2021Olympiakos 1–2 Aris1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olympiakos carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.55 for Aris. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Olympiakos and 1.22 for Aris. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympiakos rate 0.75 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aris rate 0.75 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aris, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Olympiakos against 1.22 for Aris. Olympiakos's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.36 for Aris.
Season stats
Olympiakos at home · Aris away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Olympiakos 4, Aris 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Olympiakos
- at Omonia Nicosia19 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 15%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas24 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 51%
- at Karmiotissa30 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- vs Apollon Limassol7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs AEK Larnaca22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
Aris
- vs AEK Larnaca18 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- at AEL25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 34%
- vs Anorthosis1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Apoel Nicosia8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Nea Salamis21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.