ES Metlaoui
vs
Stade Tunisien
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: ES Metlaoui 1-2 Stade Tunisien.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% ES Metlaoui, 27% draw, 44% Stade Tunisien — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: ES Metlaoui 1.21, Stade Tunisien 1.59.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Model insights: ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Tunisien at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 27M. Bejaoui
- 15Y. Soltani
- 18O. Hichri
- 20A. Ghrissi
- 34M. Toumi
- 5M. Belghith
- 8E. Kouassi
- 19C. Bodian
- 23Y. Mrad
- 9O. Naffati
- 14B. Nana
- 1S. Yeddes
- 4M. Bouzaabya
- 29A. Tlili
- 10I. Hermes
- 17O. Chebbi
- 28M. Ourimi
- 7B. Hajji
- 11A. Jouini
- 22N. Farhati
- 3A. Saihi
- 19F. Abdi
- 24R. Derbali
- 25S. Sghaier
- 6P. Diop
- 8Y. Saafi
- 34M. Thioune
- 7W. Ouerghemmi
- 9A. N'Diaye
- 20B. Hmidi
- 16A. Dkhili
- 5M. Jelassi
- 12Y. Oumarou
- 17R. Riahi
- 21Y. Toure
- 11F. Ben Youssef
- 14B. Camara
- 18M. Khemissi
- 29Y. Dhaflaoui
Form going into ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien
ES Metlaoui
- L0-1away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane13 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse6 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Sahel30 August 2026
- L0-1Club Africain23 August 2026
Stade Tunisien
- W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026
- L1-2away to US Monastirienne29 August 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien22 August 2026
What these results say
- ES Metlaoui failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- ES Metlaoui conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for ES Metlaoui had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien
- 11 October 2026ES Metlaoui 1–2 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 1 February 2026ES Metlaoui 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 27 August 2025Stade Tunisien 2–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 1 February 2025ES Metlaoui 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 26 September 2024Stade Tunisien 1–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 27 May 2023ES Metlaoui 2–1 Stade TunisienLigue 1
Leading scorers: ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien
ES Metlaoui
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Bouzaabya10
Stade Tunisien
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.21 goals for ES Metlaoui and 1.59 for Stade Tunisien; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: C. Bodian 41' (ES Metlaoui), F. Ben Youssef 81' (Stade Tunisien), A. N'Diaye 90' (Stade Tunisien).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Tunisien the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for ES Metlaoui against 1.59 for Stade Tunisien. ES Metlaoui's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.58 for Stade Tunisien.