Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-3 Zaglebie Lubin.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Raków Częstochowa, 23% draw, 28% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 49% here. Across 2804 settled matches, 1295 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Line-ups
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 7F. TudorD
- 25B. RacovițanD
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 10V. KocherginM
- 5M. BulatM
- 21T. PieńkoM
- 9P. MakuchF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 39I. BrusbergF
- 99Adam BasseF
- 77D. DebohiD
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 71T. KarićG
- 44B. MirčetićM
- 88A. MolnarM
- 22A. OjoM
- 36M. PerovićM
- 33Z. AlomerovićG
- 5A. ŁawniczakD
- 25M. NalepaD
- 3R. YakubaD
- 31I. OrlikowskiM
- 39F. KocabaM
- 8D. DąbrowskiM
- 6D. ČolinaM
- 44M. RegułaF
- 18F. SzymczakF
- 71K. NowogońskiF
- 20M. DziewiatowskiM
- 37S. KerkM
- 26J. KolanM
- 9M. KosidisF
- 77P. KosmalskiM
- 4D. MichalskiD
- 88M. MlinarićF
- 99C. PopielecM
- 7J. SypekM
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
- D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- W4-0away to Valletta FC30 July 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
- W3-1Valletta FC23 July 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 15 September 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–3 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 14 February 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 14 December 2025Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 31 March 2025Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 22 September 2024Raków Częstochowa 5–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 4 May 2024Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.