Raków Częstochowa
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
The model makes it 49% Raków Częstochowa, 23% draw, 28% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.89, Zaglebie Lubin 1.38.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 14 February 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 14 December 2025Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 31 March 2025Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 22 September 2024Raków Częstochowa 5–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 4 May 2024Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 5 November 2023Raków Częstochowa 5–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Raków Częstochowa carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.62 for Zaglebie Lubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Raków Częstochowa L-L; Zaglebie Lubin W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.38 for Zaglebie Lubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raków Częstochowa rate 0.78 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.80 and 1.28.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zaglebie Lubin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.38 for Zaglebie Lubin. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.28 for Zaglebie Lubin.