Lech Poznan
vs
Piast Gliwice
The model makes it 40% Lech Poznan, 27% draw, 33% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.40, Piast Gliwice 1.24.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lech Poznan
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
Piast Gliwice
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice
- 15 February 2026Lech Poznan 3–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 3 February 2026Piast Gliwice 1–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 3 December 2025Piast Gliwice 0–2 Lech PoznanCup
- 24 May 2025Lech Poznan 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 29 November 2024Piast Gliwice 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 29 June 2024Lech Poznan 0–1 Piast GliwiceFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.7 for Piast Gliwice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lech Poznan D-W; Piast Gliwice L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.24 for Piast Gliwice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 0.69 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Piast Gliwice rate 0.78 and 1.07.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.24 for Piast Gliwice. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.07 for Piast Gliwice.