Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 3-0 Piast Gliwice.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Lech Poznan, 27% draw, 33% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Lech Poznan at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. LisG
- 2J. PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 27W. MonkaD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 10P. WalemarkM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 11D. HakansM
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 77L. PalmaF
- 41B. MrozekG
- 31W. ObremskiG
- 9M. IshakF
- 59T. YegbeD
- 56W. Szymczak
- 53K. DelikatM
- 90H. JanyszkaD
- 20R. GumnyD
- 21P. RodriguezM
- 75D. GrilG
- 28F. BorowskiD
- 5JuandeD
- 4J. CzerwinskiD
- 36J. LewickiD
- 90I. LimaM
- 31O. LesniakM
- 27J. LabojkoM
- 80H. VallejoM
- 17Q. BoisgardF
- 19S. NtamackF
- 12M. Mendes-DudzinskiG
- 10A. KatsantonisF
- 99E. TwumasiD
- 77S. MuchaM
- 7J. FelixF
- 98J. LokiloF
- 11L. SancaM
- 3E. FikajD
- 15L. PitanD
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice
Lech Poznan
All competitions we cover
- W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- L0-3Aarhus29 July 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
- W4-1away to Aarhus21 July 2026
Piast Gliwice
All competitions we cover
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 13 | +21 | 32 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice
- 15 February 2026Lech Poznan 3–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 3 February 2026Piast Gliwice 1–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 3 December 2025Piast Gliwice 0–2 Lech PoznanCup
- 24 May 2025Lech Poznan 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 29 November 2024Piast Gliwice 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- P. Wålemark73
- Pablo Rodríguez67
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Hugo Vallejo51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lech Poznan beat Piast Gliwice 3–0. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Ishak 63' for Lech Poznan, K. Delikat 79' for Lech Poznan, A. Sayyadmanesh 90' for Lech Poznan. On expected goals it finished 2.78–1.02.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.