Slask Wroclaw
vs
Cracovia Krakow
The model makes it 41% Slask Wroclaw, 26% draw, 33% Cracovia Krakow — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.49, Cracovia Krakow 1.31.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Slask Wroclaw
- W2-1Raków Częstochowa2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze25 July 2026
Cracovia Krakow
- L0-2Pogon Szczecin3 August 2026
- D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Slask Wroclaw | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow
- 12 April 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–4 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 6 October 2024Slask Wroclaw 2–4 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 10 May 2024Slask Wroclaw 4–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 10 November 2023Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 5 March 2023Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 20 August 2022Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers
Slask Wroclaw
- P. Samiec-Talar1 goals1 assists
Cracovia Krakow
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Slask Wroclaw carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.68 for Cracovia Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Slask Wroclaw L-W; Cracovia Krakow D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.31 for Cracovia Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slask Wroclaw rate 0.83 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cracovia Krakow rate 0.63 and 0.95.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slask Wroclaw the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw against 1.31 for Cracovia Krakow. Slask Wroclaw's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/0.95 for Cracovia Krakow.