Jagiellonia
vs
Slask Wroclaw
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 40% Jagiellonia, 24% draw, 36% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.64, Slask Wroclaw 1.56.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Jagiellonia
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026
Slask Wroclaw
- D3-3Widzew Łódź22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin15 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow9 August 2026
- W2-1Raków Częstochowa2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec2 goals
Slask Wroclaw
- P. Samiec-Talar2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.61 for Slask Wroclaw. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Jagiellonia W-W-L; Slask Wroclaw L-W-D-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Jagiellonia and 1.56 for Slask Wroclaw. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.73 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slask Wroclaw rate 0.74 and 1.19.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 1.56 for Slask Wroclaw. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.19 for Slask Wroclaw.