Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Jagiellonia 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Jagiellonia, 28% draw, 29% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 15N. WojtuszekD
- 5B. VitalD
- 23G. MontoiaD
- 2C. PolakD
- 6T. RomanczukM
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 30O. SowM
- 21S. LozanoM
- 7K. SzmytM
- 99N. PrelecF
- 1M. PerchelG
- 27R. ConceicaoD
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 20B. WdowikD
- 11J. ImazM
- 14H. FinndellM
- 85E. KozlowskiM
- 8D. DrachalM
- 32A. CirkovicF
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 21A. TimossiD
- 33Y. MatsenkoD
- 5L. BaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 8M. LlinaresD
- 7P. Samiec-TalarM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 10P. M. DembeleF
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 3I. Christodoulou
- 2D. SzalaD
- 26A. ZulewskiD
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 17K. LinettyM
- 15J. YriarteM
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 9Ieltsin CamoesF
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw
Jagiellonia
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
Slask Wroclaw
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw
- 6 September 2026Jagiellonia 2–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 16 May 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 22 November 2024Jagiellonia 2–2 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 8 March 2024Jagiellonia 3–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 26 September 2023Jagiellonia 2–0 Slask WroclawCup
- 3 September 2023Slask Wroclaw 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw
Jagiellonia
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Slask Wroclaw
GoalsAssists
- P. Samiec-Talar43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.