Cracovia Krakow
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 63% Cracovia Krakow, 22% draw, 15% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 2.00, Gornik Zabrze 0.89.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cracovia Krakow
- W3-2Wieczysta Kraków21 August 2026
- W2-1Raków Częstochowa16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw9 August 2026
- L0-2Pogon Szczecin3 August 2026
- D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
- W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cracovia Krakow | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Cracovia Krakow
- A. Hasić3 goals
Gornik Zabrze
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cracovia Krakow carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.56 for Gornik Zabrze. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Cracovia Krakow D-L-D-W-W; Gornik Zabrze W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.89 for Gornik Zabrze. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cracovia Krakow rate 0.84 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gornik Zabrze rate 0.71 and 1.26.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gornik Zabrze, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cracovia Krakow the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 0.89 for Gornik Zabrze. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.26 for Gornik Zabrze.