Wieczysta Kraków
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 54% Wieczysta Kraków, 21% draw, 25% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 1.85, 4.76 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków 2.15, Zaglebie Lubin 1.43.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wieczysta Kraków
- L2-3away to Cracovia Krakow21 August 2026
- W4-3away to Piast Gliwice15 August 2026
- L1-2Lech Poznan1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom24 July 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw15 August 2026
- L1-3away to Legia Warszawa2 August 2026
- W2-0Piast Gliwice27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Wieczysta Kraków
- T. Christensen3 goals
Zaglebie Lubin
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wieczysta Kraków carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.54 for Zaglebie Lubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Wieczysta Kraków L-L-W-L; Zaglebie Lubin W-L-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.15 goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.43 for Zaglebie Lubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.91 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.67 and 1.25.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zaglebie Lubin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wieczysta Kraków the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków against 1.43 for Zaglebie Lubin. Wieczysta Kraków's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.25 for Zaglebie Lubin.