Estac Troyes
vs
Strasbourg
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 48% Estac Troyes, 30% draw, 22% Strasbourg — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Estac Troyes 1.27, Strasbourg 0.77.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Estac Troyes
- D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026
Strasbourg
- L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Estac Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg
- 21 May 2023Estac Troyes 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 2 January 2023Strasbourg 2–3 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 17 April 2022Estac Troyes 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 22 August 2021Strasbourg 1–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 11 February 2018Strasbourg 2–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
The two sides
Estac Troyes carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.65 for Strasbourg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Estac Troyes D; Strasbourg L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Estac Troyes and 0.77 for Strasbourg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estac Troyes rate 0.53 in attack and 0.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Strasbourg rate 0.85 and 1.27.
That points to 34% for over two and a half goals and 39% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (16%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estac Troyes the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Estac Troyes against 0.77 for Strasbourg. Estac Troyes's attack/defence rating is 0.53/0.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.27 for Strasbourg.