Lech Poznan
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 58% Lech Poznan, 21% draw, 21% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.30, Raków Częstochowa 1.35.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh2 goals
Raków Częstochowa
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.62 for Raków Częstochowa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lech Poznan D-W-W; Raków Częstochowa L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.35 for Raków Częstochowa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 0.85 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raków Częstochowa rate 0.89 and 1.43.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.3 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.35 for Raków Częstochowa. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.43 for Raków Częstochowa.