Pogon Szczecin
vs
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 56% Pogon Szczecin, 22% draw, 22% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 2.01, Wisla Plock 1.21.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pogon Szczecin
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Wisla Plock
- L0-5away to GKS Katowice23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow7 August 2026
- D0-0Widzew Łódź31 July 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 | Wisla Plock | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pogon Szczecin carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.63 for Wisla Plock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Pogon Szczecin L-W-W-D; Wisla Plock W-D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.21 for Wisla Plock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogon Szczecin rate 0.82 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Plock rate 0.84 and 1.30.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogon Szczecin the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin against 1.21 for Wisla Plock. Pogon Szczecin's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.3 for Wisla Plock.