Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Wisla Plock.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Pogon Szczecin, 28% draw, 33% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogon Szczecin at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 15H. AliD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 29L. WillenD
- 23B. MendyD
- 6J. BieganskiM
- 16P. DziczekM
- 47N. LawaM
- 21D. ChurlinovF
- 18P. MukairuF
- 35M. WojciechowskiF
- 33A. PeskovicG
- 89A. FojutG
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 75A. OssowskiD
- 3K. AcostaM
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 7M. JuwaraF
- 42P. ParyzekF
- 17J. NsameF
- 12R. LeszczynskiG
- 4M. Haglind-SangreD
- 35M. KaminskiD
- 34A. SilvaD
- 21Z. RogeljM
- 17A. RadwanskiM
- 5S. TavaresM
- 19D. GallapeniM
- 11J. JimenezF
- 20L. SekulskiF
- 23P. KunF
- 26J. BurekG
- 44P. MisiakD
- 41M. WieckowskiD
- 18J. PrsirM
- 6K. PomorskiM
- 88K. SavvidisM
- 16F. HiszpanskiM
- 7O. KobackiM
- 91G. KuchkoM
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
Wisla Plock
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 18 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
- 7 September 2026Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 3 May 2026Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 3 November 2025Wisla Plock 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2023Wisla Plock 0–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 13 August 2022Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 8 April 2022Pogon Szczecin 1–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez81
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.