SJK vs Mariehamn Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: SJK 2-1 Mariehamn.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% SJK, 30% draw, 40% Mariehamn — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mariehamn at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SJK vs Mariehamn
Line-ups
- 1R. PaunioG
- 5O. VäistöD
- 4Kelvin PiresD
- 2Facundo CostantiniD
- 22L. VesterbackaM
- 31E. OnuohaM
- 48A. TraoreM
- 15E. MömmöM
- 23A. WilsonM
- 7KelwinF
- 19E. MastokangasF
- 8A. BoströmM
- 51A. CisseF
- 26J. MoisioD
- 9J. StrengF
- 42AraújoM
- 49E. UdomD
- 28K. NwanegeD
- 27A. VelliosF
- 35J. ViitalaG
- 1K. LundG
- 27L. RichtnérD
- 2N. NurmiD
- 53F. GyamfiD
- 31Samson NgulubeD
- 23V. WidlundM
- 20E. PatutM
- 16A. HuttunenM
- 14Arvid BergvikM
- 18A. StroudM
- 19T. JakobsenF
- 3A. SoiniemiD
- 5T. KoivistoD
- 64M. HyvönenM
- 17Rasmus HolmbergM
- 12O. HeinoG
- 43L. AnderssonF
Form going into SJK vs Mariehamn
SJK
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to FF Jaro12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
- D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
- L1-2Lahti21 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn15 August 2026
Mariehamn
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Turku PS12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
What these results say
- SJK did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SJK had two goals or fewer.
- Mariehamn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mariehamn won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: SJK vs Mariehamn
- 15 August 2026Mariehamn 2–0 SJKFinnish Premier League
- 10 April 2026SJK 3–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
- 28 June 2025SJK 4–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
- 19 April 2025Mariehamn 1–2 SJKFinnish Premier League
- 21 July 2024Mariehamn 0–4 SJKFinnish Premier League
The result against the call
SJK beat Mariehamn 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mariehamn at 40% and given a win for SJK 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Arvid Bergvik 36' for Mariehamn, Kelwin Souza do Nascimento 64' for SJK, Aapo Boström 87' for SJK. Sent off: Foster gyamfi (Mariehamn) 80'.
How the call on SJK v Mariehamn has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is SJK's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- SJK win30%▼ −8
- Draw30%▲ +3
- Mariehamn win40%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.