AC Oulu
vs
Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: AC Oulu 0–1 Inter Turku
The model makes it 32% AC Oulu, 31% draw, 37% Inter Turku — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.09, Inter Turku 1.23.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AC Oulu vs Inter Turku
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are AC Oulu wins, grey are draws, red are Inter Turku wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Turku at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AC Oulu vs Inter Turku
AC Oulu
- L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
- L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
- D0-0SJK31 August 2026
- W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026
- L2-3Inter Turku16 August 2026
Inter Turku
- W1-0VPS14 September 2026
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026
- W1-0KuPS31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS23 August 2026
- W3-2away to AC Oulu16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 34 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs Inter Turku
- 16 August 2026AC Oulu 2–3 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 13 June 2026Inter Turku 0–0 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
- 21 March 2026Inter Turku 2–1 AC OuluLeague Cup
- 8 August 2025Inter Turku 3–2 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
- 26 April 2025AC Oulu 1–4 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 24 September 2024AC Oulu 1–0 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: AC Oulu and Inter Turku
AC Oulu
- J. Körkkö2 goals2 assists
- E. Kallio2 goals
Inter Turku
- J. Yli-Kokko2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AC Oulu carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.35 for Inter Turku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for AC Oulu and 1.23 for Inter Turku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Oulu rate 0.42 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Turku rate 0.58 and 1.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AC Oulu a 0.2% chance of the title and Inter Turku 53.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Turku the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AC Oulu against 1.23 for Inter Turku. AC Oulu's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.59 for Inter Turku.