Inter Miami
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Inter Miami 2–1 New York City FC
The model makes it 49% Inter Miami, 25% draw, 26% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Inter Miami 2.39, New York City FC 1.39.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Inter Miami are 3rd on 46 points from 27 games; New York City FC are 9th on 33 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Inter Miami have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Columbus Crew.
- New York City FC have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Atlanta United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Miami 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended New York City FC 2–3 Inter Miami.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Inter Miami vs New York City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter Miami vs New York City FC
Inter Miami
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
- D2-2Atlanta United FC5 September 2026
New York City FC
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64 | 50 | +14 | 46 |
| 9 | New York City FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs New York City FC
- 22 March 2026New York City FC 2–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 29 November 2025Inter Miami 5–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2025New York City FC 0–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Inter Miami 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2024New York City FC 1–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 30 March 2024Inter Miami 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and New York City FC
Inter Miami
- L. Messi21 goals11 assists
- L. Suárez12 goals2 assists
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Miami carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.55 for New York City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.39 goals for Inter Miami and 1.39 for New York City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Miami rate 1.10 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York City FC rate 0.64 and 1.19.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Inter Miami against 1.39 for New York City FC. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.19 for New York City FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Inter Miami at home · New York City FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Inter Miami 27, New York City FC 27.
Inter Miami score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); New York City FC have let in 9 there.
New York City FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Inter Miami have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Inter Miami
- at Atlanta United FC17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 46%
- at New York Red Bulls24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 48%
- vs FC Cincinnati28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 59%
- at New England Revolution2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 39%
New York City FC
- vs Los Angeles FC17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- at Orlando City SC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 35%
- vs Atlanta United FC28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs CF Montreal31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.