Toronto FC
vs
Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Toronto FC 2–1 Orlando City SC
The model makes it 41% Toronto FC, 26% draw, 33% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Toronto FC 2.06, Orlando City SC 1.75.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Toronto FC are 13th on 29 points from 27 games; Orlando City SC are 7th on 34 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Toronto FC are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Nashville SC.
- Orlando City SC have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Philadelphia Union.
- Last 6 meetings: Orlando City SC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 September 2026, ended Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FC.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toronto FC at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Toronto FC
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
- W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
- D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026
Orlando City SC
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
- W1-0San Diego5 September 2026
What these results say
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Toronto FC | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 29 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
- 12 September 2026Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Toronto FC 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 July 2024Toronto FC 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2024Orlando City SC 1–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 October 2023Toronto FC 0–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Toronto FC and Orlando City SC
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Orlando City SC
- M. Ojeda13 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Toronto FC carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.48 for Orlando City SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Toronto FC and 1.75 for Orlando City SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toronto FC rate 0.64 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orlando City SC rate 0.81 and 1.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toronto FC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Toronto FC against 1.75 for Orlando City SC. Toronto FC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.76 for Orlando City SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Toronto FC at home · Orlando City SC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Toronto FC 27, Orlando City SC 27.
Toronto FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Orlando City SC have let in 14 there.
Orlando City SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Toronto FC have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Toronto FC
- at New York Red Bulls17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- at Columbus Crew24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs DC United28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 42%
- at Atlanta United FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 33%
Orlando City SC
- vs DC United17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs New York City FC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 38%
- at Chicago Fire29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
- at Charlotte31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.