CF Montreal
vs
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: CF Montreal 1–0 Atlanta United FC
The model makes it 37% CF Montreal, 29% draw, 34% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: CF Montreal 1.37, Atlanta United FC 1.29.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: CF Montreal and Atlanta United FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- CF Montreal are bottom on 24 points from 27 games; Atlanta United FC are 14th on 27 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to FC Cincinnati.
- Atlanta United FC are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to New York City FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Atlanta United FC 3–1 CF Montreal.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Montreal at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
Atlanta United FC
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
- L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami5 September 2026
What these results say
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CF Montreal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
- 2 May 2026Atlanta United FC 3–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 9 August 2025CF Montreal 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Atlanta United FC 3–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2024CF Montreal 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Atlanta United FC 1–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2024CF Montreal 1–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
- P. Owusu15 goals6 assists
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CF Montreal carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.39 for Atlanta United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for CF Montreal and 1.29 for Atlanta United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Montreal rate 0.53 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlanta United FC rate 0.56 and 1.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CF Montreal the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for CF Montreal against 1.29 for Atlanta United FC. CF Montreal's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.42 for Atlanta United FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CF Montreal at home · Atlanta United FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: CF Montreal 27, Atlanta United FC 27.
Atlanta United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); CF Montreal have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
CF Montreal
- at Seattle Sounders18 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 26%
- vs Nashville SC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 22%
- at Charlotte28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 22%
- at New York City FC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 23%
Atlanta United FC
- vs Inter Miami17 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 29%
- vs Chicago Fire24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- at New York City FC28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 26%
- vs Toronto FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.