Instituto Cordoba
vs
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 79% Instituto Cordoba, 13% draw, 8% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 1.27, 7.69 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Instituto Cordoba 2.99, San Lorenzo 0.90.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Instituto Cordoba
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago16 August 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lanus3 August 2026
- W2-1Platense30 July 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield24 July 2026
San Lorenzo
- W1-0Union Santa Fe15 August 2026
- L0-2Huracan9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago4 August 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza28 July 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Instituto Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.54 for San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Instituto Cordoba L-W-W-W-W; San Lorenzo L-W-L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.99 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 0.90 for San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Instituto Cordoba rate 1.20 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Lorenzo rate 0.71 and 1.32.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (9%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour San Lorenzo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Instituto Cordoba a 0.4% chance of the title and San Lorenzo 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 938 settled predictions (49%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Instituto Cordoba the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba against 0.9 for San Lorenzo. Instituto Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 1.2/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.32 for San Lorenzo.