Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Instituto Cordoba 1-0 San Lorenzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Instituto Cordoba, 27% draw, 23% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Instituto Cordoba at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. LedesmaG
- 30J. GalvanD
- 26L. MosevichD
- 6F. R. AlarconD
- 44G. CeratoM
- 55G. AbreguM
- 15M. GallardoM
- 3D. SosaM
- 20J. E. Cordoba MosqueraF
- 17M. TisseraF
- 21J. LazaroF
- 35E. O. Sittaro MirandaG
- 2H. De La FuenteD
- 22A. MassaccesiD
- 32A. BravoD
- 23A. MeliD
- 90P. BasterM
- 13J. MendezM
- 8J. AcevedoM
- 14W. VieraM
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 32E. HerreraD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 19E. AmorD
- 3T. Rodriguez PaganoD
- 5I. PerruzziM
- 11M. RealiM
- 22J. AlvarezM
- 24N. TripichioM
- 9A. CuelloM
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 6M. De RitisD
- 16G. CorujoD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 27M. RioM
- 62G. AlassiaM
- 39U. OjedaM
- 13J. RattalinoM
Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo
Instituto Cordoba
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago16 August 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lanus3 August 2026
- W2-1Platense30 July 2026
San Lorenzo
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
What these results say
- Instituto Cordoba went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Instituto Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 25 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo
- 24 February 2026San Lorenzo 1–1 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 August 2025San Lorenzo 1–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2025Instituto Cordoba 0–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 October 2024Instituto Cordoba 2–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 May 2023San Lorenzo 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.