FC Zurich vs BSC Young Boys Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Zurich 2-4 BSC Young Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% FC Zurich, 29% draw, 35% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Swiss Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Zurich at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Zurich vs BSC Young Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
Form going into FC Zurich vs BSC Young Boys
FC Zurich
- W3-2away to Lausanne29 August 2026
BSC Young Boys
- D3-3FC Basel 189329 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Zurich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Zurich vs BSC Young Boys
- 1 September 2026FC Zurich 2–4 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 1 March 2026BSC Young Boys 3–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 1 February 2026BSC Young Boys 3–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 26 October 2025FC Zurich 2–3 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 21 April 2025BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC ZurichSuper League
- 27 February 2025FC Zurich 2–3 BSC Young BoysSchweizer Cup
Leading scorers: FC Zurich and BSC Young Boys
FC Zurich
- U. Emmanuel4 goals2 assists
BSC Young Boys
- S. Essende10 goals3 assists
- C. Fassnacht4 goals1 assist
- A. Sanches3 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.