Defensa Y Justicia
vs
Platense
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 66% Defensa Y Justicia, 17% draw, 17% Platense — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Defensa Y Justicia 2.79, Platense 1.40.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Defensa Y Justicia
- W2-1Newell's Old Boys9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
- D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026
- L1-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza4 May 2026
Platense
- D1-1Boca Juniors16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Independiente9 August 2026
- L0-4Talleres Cordoba3 August 2026
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba30 July 2026
- D2-2Union Santa Fe25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Defensa Y Justicia carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.42 for Platense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Defensa Y Justicia L-D-W-L-W; Platense D-L-L-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.79 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.40 for Platense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Defensa Y Justicia rate 1.04 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Platense rate 0.60 and 1.42.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Defensa Y Justicia the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia against 1.4 for Platense. Defensa Y Justicia's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.42 for Platense.