Defensa Y Justicia vs Platense Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 1-0 Platense.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Defensa Y Justicia, 26% draw, 28% Platense — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs Platense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 28V. LozaD
- 29D. FernandezD
- 21D. MartinezD
- 3F. RomanD
- 15S. SosaM
- 24J. GutierrezM
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 8C. PerezM
- 11T. PerrottaM
- 9L. FernandezF
- 36L. AmadeG
- 16A. PortilloM
- 2S. LuceroD
- 6E. BurdinD
- 30D. DominguezD
- 17A. HauschF
- 22M. PorcelM
- 26J. LuccoF
- 45T. MartinezM
- 30J. CozzaniG
- 4A. LagosD
- 13I. VazquezD
- 31Victor CuestaD
- 3T. SilvaD
- 7G. MaineroM
- 26P. FerreiraM
- 24M. BarriosM
- 16G. TogniM
- 11N. LopezF
- 43K. RetamarF
- 22N. SumavilG
- 6E. RaggioD
- 25J. SaboridoD
- 34M. MendiaD
- 5I. GomezM
- 10F. ZapiolaM
- 23L. HerediaM
- 18B. MerliniF
- 99G. LencinaF
Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Platense
Defensa Y Justicia
- W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026
Platense
- W2-1away to Barracas Central23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 | Platense | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Platense
- 24 February 2026Platense 0–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 September 2025Defensa Y Justicia 1–2 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 March 2025Platense 0–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 July 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–3 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 January 2024Defensa Y Justicia 3–0 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 27 August 2023Platense 0–0 Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.