Estudiantes La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 0-0 Newell's Old Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Estudiantes La Plata, 28% draw, 25% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estudiantes La Plata at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16F. MusleraG
- 40E. MancusoD
- 4S. NunezD
- 14L. Gonzalez PirezD
- 13G. BenedettiD
- 21L. PioviM
- 8Gabriel NevesM
- 31B. RodriguezM
- 32J. CorreaM
- 17J. BurgosM
- 9G. CarrilloF
- 1F. IacovichG
- 26R. Funes MoriD
- 20E. MezaD
- 24T. PalaciosD
- 7J. SosaM
- 22A. CastroM
- 52B. KociubinskiM
- 18E. CetreF
- 19A. GaichF
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 6M. OrtegaD
- 25B. CabreraD
- 17L. GiannettiD
- 24F. EscobarD
- 26R. HerreraM
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20F. GuchM
- 39T. RiosM
- 9M. CoccaroF
- 21G. AriasG
- 22O. SalomonD
- 16L. CarrizoD
- 15A. SonoraM
- 27L. GomezM
- 10V. AcunaM
- 19J. GomezM
- 35B. BenedettoM
- 18M. E. GarciaF
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys
Estudiantes La Plata
- L0-2away to Sarmiento Junin23 August 2026
Newell's Old Boys
- W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Estudiantes La Plata | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys
- 25 February 2026Newell's Old Boys 0–2 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 September 2025Newell's Old Boys 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 March 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 August 2024Newell's Old Boys 1–4 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 February 2024Estudiantes La Plata 2–0 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 24 September 2023Newell's Old Boys 0–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.