Independiente Rivadavia vs Racing Club Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Rivadavia 3-1 Racing Club.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Independiente Rivadavia, 28% draw, 29% Racing Club — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Rivadavia vs Racing Club
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30N. BolcatoG
- 2L. CostaD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 42S. StuderD
- 8L. BuccaD
- 11G. RiosM
- 5T. BottariM
- 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
- 10M. FernandezM
- 9A. ArceF
- 17M. SalasF
- 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
- 28A. VigoD
- 13A. OsellaD
- 3J. M. ElordiD
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 20A. RiepM
- 32K. A. VazquezM
- 7V. RamisF
- 25F. CambesesG
- 4E. CannavoD
- 38M. MartinezD
- 43G. EscuderoD
- 18PachaD
- 16U. OrtegozaM
- 33L. PerezM
- 11M. ZarachoM
- 10M. MiljevicM
- 9Adrian MartinezF
- 17T. ConechnyF
- 30M. TagliamonteG
- 14J. BarinagaD
- 2M. PerezD
- 34T. RubioD
- 5M. KranevitterM
- 20G. A. LodicoM
- 24A. FernandezM
- 37S. AguirreM
- 40F. FragaF
Form going into Independiente Rivadavia vs Racing Club
Independiente Rivadavia
- D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba15 August 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sarmiento Junin3 August 2026
- W2-1Huracan30 July 2026
Racing Club
- D1-1Boca Juniors24 August 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Independiente Rivadavia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 | Racing Club | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia vs Racing Club
- 26 February 2026Racing Club 1–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 October 2025Racing Club 0–0 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 March 2025Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 November 2024Racing Club 2–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente Rivadavia and Racing Club
Independiente Rivadavia
- A. Arce9 goals1 assist
- F. Sartori8 goals
- J. Florentín6 goals1 assist
Racing Club
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.