Independiente Rivadavia
vs
Racing Club
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 58% Independiente Rivadavia, 21% draw, 21% Racing Club — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Independiente Rivadavia 2.18, Racing Club 1.25.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Independiente Rivadavia
- F. Sartori7 goals
Racing Club
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente Rivadavia carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.62 for Racing Club. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Independiente Rivadavia D-W-L-W-L; Racing Club W-D-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Independiente Rivadavia and 1.25 for Racing Club. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente Rivadavia rate 1.02 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Club rate 0.71 and 1.13.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Rivadavia the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Independiente Rivadavia against 1.25 for Racing Club. Independiente Rivadavia's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.13 for Racing Club.