5 October 2026, 22:00 UTC

Velez Sarsfield vs Platense Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Buenos Aires
Referee: Sebastian Zunino, Argentina
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Platense.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Velez Sarsfield, 29% draw, 21% Platense — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Velez Sarsfield at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Velez Sarsfield5%Draw93%Platense2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ronaldo Martinez
5'
7'
⚽Bautista Merlini
🔁Manuel Lanziniout: Diego Valdés
9'
🔁Juan Cruz Policellaout: Simón Escobar
14'
43'
•Kevin Retamar
45+1'
⚽Agustin Lagos (pen)
⚽Ronaldo Martinezassist: Simón Escobar
54'
65'
🔁Maximiliano Amarfilout: Ivan Gómez
65'
🔁Bautista Merliniout: Franco Zapiola Yamartino
65'
🔁Guido Maineroout: Gastón Togni
🔁Thiago Aguirreout: Luca Feler
70'
71'
🔁Bruno Christian Sepulvedaout: Gonzalo Lencina
79'
Tomás Silva
84'
Ivan Gómez
88'
⚽Franco Zapiola Yamartinoassist: Agustin Lagos
89'
🔁Kevin Retamarout: Juan Carlos Gauto

Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Platense

47%Possession53%
10Shots15
6On target4
4Corners4

Line-ups

Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. MarchioriG
  • 4J. GarcíaD
  • 32Thiago SilveorD
  • 16L. MagallánD
  • 3Elías GómezD
  • 29R. AliendroM
  • 8L. RobertoneM
  • 39T. AguirreM
  • 22M. LanziniM
  • 37J. PolicellaM
  • 77R. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 35M. AriasF
  • 5C. BaezaM
  • 19L. CristaldoD
  • 18S. EscobarD
  • 48Luca FelerM
  • 15D. GodoyF
  • 21Jano GordonD
  • 47A. PereyraD
  • 30L. PiolaF
Coach: Guillermo Barros Schelotto
Platense 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. CozzaniG
  • 4A. LagosD
  • 34M. MendiaD
  • 31V. CuestaD
  • 3T. SilvaD
  • 15M. AmarfilM
  • 24M. BarriosM
  • 7G. MaineroM
  • 18B. MerliniM
  • 43N. RetamarM
  • 79B. SepúlvedaF
Substitutes
  • 5I. GómezM
  • 16G. TogniF
  • 10F. ZapiolaM
  • 22N. SumavilG
  • 17Felipe BussioM
  • 23L. HerediaM
  • 33J. GautoF
  • 99G. LencinaF
  • 11N. LópezF
Coach: M. Palermo

Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Platense

Velez Sarsfield

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Tigre21 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
  • W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to River Plate23 August 2026

Platense

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Newell's Old Boys20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Estudiantes La Plata12 September 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Defensa Y Justicia31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Barracas Central23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Velez Sarsfield went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Velez Sarsfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Platense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Platense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Velez Sarsfield167722517+828
10Platense165561820-220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Platense

  • 14 March 2026Platense 0–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 July 2025Platense 0–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 29 January 2025Velez Sarsfield 0–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 July 2024Platense 0–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 March 2023Velez Sarsfield 1–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Velez Sarsfield vs Platense record →

Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Platense

Velez Sarsfield

GoalsAssists

  • R. Martínez132

Platense

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Velez Sarsfield and Platense drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Velez Sarsfield at 50% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ronaldo Martinez 5' for Velez Sarsfield, Bautista Merlini 7' for Platense, Ronaldo Martinez 54' for Velez Sarsfield, Franco Zapiola Yamartino 88' for Platense.

How the call on Velez Sarsfield v Platense has moved

First published on 21 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 29% / 21%: the biggest move is Platense's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Velez Sarsfield win50%▲ +6
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Platense win21%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.