Gimnasia La Plata
vs
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Atletico Tucuman
The model makes it 42% Gimnasia La Plata, 31% draw, 27% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 1.32, Atletico Tucuman 0.85.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman
Gimnasia La Plata
- D2-2Banfield19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
- L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
Atletico Tucuman
- L0-1away to Aldosivi21 September 2026
- L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026
- D0-0Belgrano Cordoba30 August 2026
- D0-0Instituto Cordoba22 August 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Gimnasia La Plata.
- Atletico Tucuman failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman
- 21 March 2026Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 September 2025Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 February 2025Atletico Tucuman 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 November 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 May 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–2 Gimnasia La PlataCopa Argentina
- 7 April 2024Atletico Tucuman 3–2 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Atletico Tucuman
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assists
- A. Auzmendi7 goals3 assists
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia La Plata carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.57 for Atletico Tucuman. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 0.85 for Atletico Tucuman. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia La Plata rate 0.93 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Tucuman rate 0.65 and 1.16.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata against 0.85 for Atletico Tucuman. Gimnasia La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.16 for Atletico Tucuman.