Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 Atletico Tucuman.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Gimnasia La Plata, 29% draw, 24% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Gimnasia La Plata at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23N. InsfránG
- 31B. Barros SchelottoD
- 13G. ContiD
- 21E. MartínezD
- 22M. MellusoD
- 9M. ZalazarM
- 5I. MiramónM
- 8I. FernándezM
- 17L. JansonM
- 19A. ColazoF
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 26F. TorresF
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 25A. SteimbachM
- 35J. CortazzoD
- 15H. CastilloG
- 10N. SchelottoM
- 4R. GiampaoliD
- 16A. MaxM
- 43M. OjedaD
- 1L. IngolottiG
- 24L. Di PlácidoD
- 26C. FerreiraD
- 36Luciano VallejoD
- 21I. GalvánD
- 5J. FernándezM
- 11R. TesuriM
- 31L. GodoyM
- 10F. NicolaM
- 23N. LaméndolaM
- 18R. Ruíz RodríguezF
- 34Mauro CarrizoM
- 28G. CompagnucciD
- 25T. DursoG
- 6G. FerrariD
- 27R. GranilloF
- 8E. HamM
- 32J. InfanteD
- 22F. PimientaF
- 17J. RodríguezD
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman
Gimnasia La Plata
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Independiente Rivadavia3 October 2026
- D2-2Banfield19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
Atletico Tucuman
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Barracas Central3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Aldosivi21 September 2026
- L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026
- D0-0Belgrano Cordoba30 August 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 31 |
| 11 | Atletico Tucuman | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman
- 21 March 2026Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 September 2025Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 February 2025Atletico Tucuman 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 November 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 May 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–2 Gimnasia La PlataCopa Argentina
- 7 April 2024Atletico Tucuman 3–2 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Atletico Tucuman
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres102
- A. Auzmendi84
Atletico Tucuman
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimnasia La Plata and Atletico Tucuman drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimnasia La Plata at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Lautaro Godoy 83' for Atletico Tucuman, Marcelo Torres (penalty) 90+5' for Gimnasia La Plata. On expected goals it finished 1.82–0.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gimnasia La Plata these chances to finish in the top four: 60.2% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 36.7%.
For Atletico Tucuman the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 20.9% going in: 5.9% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 28.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.5%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Gimnasia La Plata v Atletico Tucuman has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 29% / 24%: the biggest move is Gimnasia La Plata's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Gimnasia La Plata win47%▲ +5
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Atletico Tucuman win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.