Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 1-0 Newell's Old Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Independiente, 20% draw, 49% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 3.23, 5.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newell's Old Boys at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Rodrigo ReyG
- 29Leonardo GodoyD
- 13Juan FedorcoD
- 36Sebastián ValdezD
- 22Facundo ZabalaD
- 16Mateo Perez CurciM
- 23Iván MarconeM
- 28Maximiliano GutiérrezM
- 7Santiago MontielM
- 19Matías AbaldoM
- 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
- 8Maxi MezaF
- 26Kevin LomónacoD
- 32David MartínezM
- 4Santiago AriasD
- 10Luciano CabralM
- 1Joaquín BlázquezG
- 35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
- 3Jonathan De IrastorzaD
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 30Josué ReinattiG
- 24Franco EscobarD
- 25Bruno CabreraD
- 17Lautaro GiannettiD
- 3Martín LucianoD
- 8David SoteloM
- 5Luca RegiardoM
- 7Walter MazzanttiM
- 20Facundo GuchM
- 33Walter NuñezM
- 99Juan Ignacio RamírezF
- 39Lautaro RiosM
- 15Alan SoñoraM
- 28Jeronimo RussoF
- 9Matías CóccaroF
- 36Francisco ScarpeccioF
- 21Gabriel AriasG
- 23Nicolás GoiteaD
- 22Óscar SalomónD
- 2Ian GlavinovichD
Form going into Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys
Independiente
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
Newell's Old Boys
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Newell's Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys
- 31 July 2026Independiente 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 January 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 November 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 July 2023Independiente 0–2 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 September 2022Independiente 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 October 2021Newell's Old Boys 1–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente and Newell's Old Boys
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.