Independiente
vs
Newell's Old Boys
The model makes it 33% Independiente, 20% draw, 47% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 3.03, 5.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Independiente 2.06, Newell's Old Boys 2.43.
Both teams to score: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Newell's Old Boys
- 28 January 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 November 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 July 2023Independiente 0–2 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 September 2022Independiente 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 October 2021Newell's Old Boys 1–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 March 2021Newell's Old Boys 1–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newell's Old Boys the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Independiente against 2.43 for Newell's Old Boys. Independiente's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.06 for Newell's Old Boys.