Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 3-0 Defensa Y Justicia.
Before kick-off the model made it 86% Estudiantes La Plata, 10% draw, 4% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 1.16, 10.00 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estudiantes La Plata at 86% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16F. MusleraG
- 20E. MezaD
- 4S. NunezD
- 24T. PalaciosD
- 13G. BenedettiD
- 21L. PioviM
- 22A. CastroM
- 29Perez FabricioM
- 10T. PalaciosM
- 17J. BurgosM
- 9G. CarrilloF
- 1F. IacovichG
- 7J. SosaM
- 26R. Funes MoriD
- 18E. CetreF
- 19A. GaichF
- 28B. AguirreF
- 27L. AlarioF
- 8Gabriel NevesM
- 11F. FariasM
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 33L. SoutoD
- 29D. FernandezD
- 2S. LuceroD
- 40M. RodriguezD
- 8C. PerezM
- 15S. SosaM
- 17A. HauschM
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 24J. GutierrezM
- 9L. FernandezF
- 36L. AmadeG
- 3F. RomanD
- 16A. PortilloM
- 25F. AltamiraF
- 45T. MartinezM
- 41R. GagliardiF
- 27D. BlancoM
- 23M. AguiarM
- 7T. PerezF
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia
Estudiantes La Plata
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Independiente26 July 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
- D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Estudiantes La Plata | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 14 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia
- 2 February 2026Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 September 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 March 2025Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 September 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 March 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
The full Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia record →
The result against the call
Estudiantes La Plata beat Defensa Y Justicia 3–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Estudiantes La Plata at 86%. The goals: G. Carrillo 9' for Estudiantes La Plata, L. Piovi 16' for Estudiantes La Plata, T. Palacios 36' for Estudiantes La Plata. On expected goals it finished 1.99–1.54.