1 August 2026, 21:00 UTC

Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 3-0 Defensa Y Justicia.

Before kick-off the model made it 86% Estudiantes La Plata, 10% draw, 4% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 1.16, 10.00 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Estudiantes La Plata at 86% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estudiantes La Plata99%Draw1%Defensa Y Justicia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽G. Carrilloassist: E. Meza
9'
14'
🔁L. Soutoout: A. Portillo
⚽L. Pioviassist: T. Palacios
16'
Fabricio Pérez
28'
28'
David Barbona
34'
Damián Fernández
⚽T. Palaciosassist: G. Carrillo
36'
64'
🔁M. Rodriguezout: F. Roman
64'
🔁S. Sosaout: D. Blanco
64'
🔁L. Fernandezout: T. Perez
🔁T. Palaciosout: J. Sosa
70'
🔁A. Castroout: Gabriel Neves
71'
🔁T. Palaciosout: R. Funes Mori
72'
🔁Perez Fabricioout: B. Aguirre
72'
79'
🔁A. Hauschout: R. Gagliardi
🔁G. Carrilloout: L. Alario
80'
85'
•Fernando Román
87'
⚽David Barbona (pen)

Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia

41%Possession59%
15Shots20
9On target8
2Corners5
1.99xG1.54

Goals against chances

Estudiantes La Plata3 from 1.99 xGmore than the chances were worth
Defensa Y Justicia0 from 1.54 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estudiantes La Plata 4-2-3-1
  • 16F. MusleraG
  • 20E. MezaD
  • 4S. NunezD
  • 24T. PalaciosD
  • 13G. BenedettiD
  • 21L. PioviM
  • 22A. CastroM
  • 29Perez FabricioM
  • 10T. PalaciosM
  • 17J. BurgosM
  • 9G. CarrilloF
Substitutes
  • 1F. IacovichG
  • 7J. SosaM
  • 26R. Funes MoriD
  • 18E. CetreF
  • 19A. GaichF
  • 28B. AguirreF
  • 27L. AlarioF
  • 8Gabriel NevesM
  • 11F. FariasM
Coach: Alexander Medina
Defensa Y Justicia 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BorgognoG
  • 33L. SoutoD
  • 29D. FernandezD
  • 2S. LuceroD
  • 40M. RodriguezD
  • 8C. PerezM
  • 15S. SosaM
  • 17A. HauschM
  • 19D. BarbonaM
  • 24J. GutierrezM
  • 9L. FernandezF
Substitutes
  • 36L. AmadeG
  • 3F. RomanD
  • 16A. PortilloM
  • 25F. AltamiraF
  • 45T. MartinezM
  • 41R. GagliardiF
  • 27D. BlancoM
  • 23M. AguiarM
  • 7T. PerezF
Coach: Mariano Soso

Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia

Estudiantes La Plata

  • L0-2Independiente26 July 2026

Defensa Y Justicia

  • W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
  • D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Estudiantes La Plata931599010
3Defensa Y Justicia9522119+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa Y Justicia

  • 1 August 2026Estudiantes La Plata 3–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 February 2026Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 22 September 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 March 2025Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 September 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 29 March 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.