Independiente
vs
Gimnasia Mendoza
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 59% Independiente, 20% draw, 21% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 1.69, 5.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Independiente 2.36, Gimnasia Mendoza 1.38.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Independiente
- L0-1Platense9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Rosario Central10 May 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba9 August 2026
- W2-0Union Santa Fe1 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026
- W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026
- W2-1Defensa Y Justicia4 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.46 for Gimnasia Mendoza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Independiente L-W-W-L-L; Gimnasia Mendoza W-W-L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for Independiente and 1.38 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente rate 0.71 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.79 and 1.76.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente a 4.9% chance of the title and Gimnasia Mendoza 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Independiente against 1.38 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Independiente's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.76 for Gimnasia Mendoza.