Banfield vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Banfield 2-3 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Banfield, 28% draw, 35% River Plate — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Banfield at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Banfield vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50D. RodriguezG
- 24S. LopezD
- 37R. MalancaD
- 6N. MerianoD
- 27I. AbrahamD
- 13B. OviedoM
- 18F. MedinaM
- 35N. PaisM
- 20T. AdoryanM
- 28M. HernandezF
- 22A. MachadoF
- 25G. SantilliG
- 34S. DanieleD
- 19L. CanoD
- 4J. L. AlfaroD
- 5S. EsquivelM
- 70M. ArteagaM
- 10L. GomezM
- 11F. AlvarezM
- 30F. AnselmoF
- 41S. BeltranG
- 29G. MontielD
- 28L. Martinez QuartaD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 21M. AcunaD
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 50T. AndradaM
- 23T. AlmadaM
- 10A. CorreaM
- 26T. GalvanM
- 9S. DriussiF
- 33E. CenturionG
- 20G. GonzalezD
- 3F. OrtegaD
- 13L. RiveroD
- 8M. ArambarriM
- 24J. MezaM
- 25L. PereyraF
- 44L. SilvaM
- 19R. BorreF
Form going into Banfield vs River Plate
Banfield
- L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys23 August 2026
River Plate
- D2-2Velez Sarsfield23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Banfield | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | River Plate | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Banfield vs River Plate
- 26 February 2026River Plate 3–1 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 November 2024River Plate 3–1 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2024River Plate 1–1 BanfieldCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 September 2023Banfield 1–1 River PlateCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 12 June 2023Banfield 1–4 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 February 2023Banfield 2–3 River PlateTrofeo de Campeones de la Superliga
Leading scorers: Banfield and River Plate
Banfield
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
River Plate
- T. Galván6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.