Banfield
vs
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 36% Banfield, 24% draw, 40% River Plate — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Banfield 1.62, River Plate 1.73.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
The two sides
Banfield carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.77 for River Plate. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Banfield L-W-D-L-W; River Plate L-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Banfield and 1.73 for River Plate. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Banfield rate 0.91 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; River Plate rate 0.79 and 0.94.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Banfield against 1.73 for River Plate. Banfield's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/0.94 for River Plate.