Atletico Tucuman
vs
Belgrano Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 44% Atletico Tucuman, 26% draw, 30% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 1.62, Belgrano Cordoba 1.30.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assists
Belgrano Cordoba
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Tucuman carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.73 for Belgrano Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Atletico Tucuman W-D-W-D-L; Belgrano Cordoba W-L-D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 1.30 for Belgrano Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Tucuman rate 0.71 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belgrano Cordoba rate 0.94 and 1.21.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Tucuman the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman against 1.3 for Belgrano Cordoba. Atletico Tucuman's attack/defence rating is 0.71/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.21 for Belgrano Cordoba.