AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: AIK Stockholm 3-2 Hammarby FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% AIK Stockholm, 27% draw, 41% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hammarby FF at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 15K. NordfeldtG
- 19D. BesirovicD
- 34W. OlofssonD
- 3H. MatthysD
- 7A. MujanicM
- 46Y. GeigerM
- 18A. AliM
- 5L. BergquistM
- 9L. CarlstrandF
- 8J. HoveF
- 29K. FillingF
- 30K. JoelssonG
- 49O. PukelisD
- 47L. CamaraD
- 28L. JaretegM
- 44D. MalkiM
- 48A. KouameM
- 41M. ShillaM
- 16S. GustafssonF
- 43N. StaykovF
- 1W. HahnG
- 2H. SkoglundD
- 4V. ErikssonD
- 3F. WintherD
- 16N. PerssonD
- 28F. AdjeiM
- 8M. KarlssonM
- 17A. BoudriM
- 26M. MadjedF
- 7P. AbrahamF
- 9V. LindF
- 27F. JakobssonG
- 24W. ReneckeD
- 6I. FofanaD
- 31O. SteinkeD
- 11O. JohanssonM
- 20N. BesaraM
- 5T. TekieM
- 15O. Hagen
- 30S. KebbehF
Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF
AIK Stockholm
- W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026
- W4-3away to Orgryte IS8 August 2026
- L0-3Orgryte IS2 August 2026
- D0-0away to BK Hacken27 July 2026
- W2-0Gais18 July 2026
Hammarby FF
- W2-0Gais23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 33 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 20 | +29 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF
- 30 August 2026AIK Stockholm 3–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 24 May 2026Hammarby FF 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 19 October 2025Hammarby FF 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 18 May 2025AIK Stockholm 0–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 29 September 2024AIK Stockholm 1–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 19 May 2024Hammarby FF 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF
AIK Stockholm
- J. Hove7 goals1 assist
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham14 goals3 assists
- V. Lind9 goals11 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.