AIK Stockholm
vs
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 21% AIK Stockholm, 21% draw, 58% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 4.76, 4.76 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: AIK Stockholm 1.35, Hammarby FF 2.28.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
AIK Stockholm
- W4-3away to Orgryte IS8 August 2026
- L0-3Orgryte IS2 August 2026
- D0-0away to BK Hacken27 July 2026
- W2-0Gais18 July 2026
- W2-1away to Mjallby AIF11 July 2026
Hammarby FF
- W3-0BK Hacken9 August 2026
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna26 July 2026
- W4-0Degerfors IF19 July 2026
- W2-0Kalmar FF12 July 2026
- W2-1away to IF Elfsborg5 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AIK Stockholm | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 25 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
AIK Stockholm
No league goals recorded yet.
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham9 goals3 assists
- V. Lind7 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AIK Stockholm carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.57 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): AIK Stockholm W-W-D-L-W; Hammarby FF W-W-W-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for AIK Stockholm and 2.28 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AIK Stockholm rate 0.47 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 0.85 and 1.52.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AIK Stockholm a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 3.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for AIK Stockholm against 2.28 for Hammarby FF. AIK Stockholm's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.52 for Hammarby FF.