Estoril
vs
Felgueiras 1932
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: Estoril 2–1 Felgueiras 1932
The model makes it 55% Estoril, 24% draw, 21% Felgueiras 1932 — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Estoril 1.99, Felgueiras 1932 1.01.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Estoril: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Estoril's rating is built from 44 Primeira Liga matches and Felgueiras 1932's from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Estoril are bottom in Primeira Liga on 2 points from 10 games; Felgueiras 1932 are 15th in Segunda Liga on 8 points from 10 games.
- Estoril have not won in their last 5 Primeira Liga games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to FC Porto.
- Felgueiras 1932 have not won in their last 5 Segunda Liga games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Leixoes.
Chance to go through
Taça de Portugal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Estoril60%
- Level after ninety minutes22%
- Felgueiras 193218%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça de Portugal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estoril vs Felgueiras 1932
Has the model earned this number?
Estoril at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Estoril vs Felgueiras 1932
Estoril
Primeira Liga
- L0-4away to FC Porto31 October 2026
- L1-3Moreirense25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu10 October 2026
- L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
Felgueiras 1932
Segunda Liga
- D3-3Leixoes7 November 2026
- L2-3away to Tondela1 November 2026
- D2-2Lusitânia Lourosa25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
- L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
What these results say
- Estoril did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Estoril conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estoril had three goals or more.
- Felgueiras 1932 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Estoril and Felgueiras 1932 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 8 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Primeira Liga · Segunda Liga
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Felgueiras 1932
- 17 October 2021Felgueiras 1932 0–1 EstorilTaça de Portugal
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estoril the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Estoril against 1.01 for Felgueiras 1932. Estoril's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.63 for Felgueiras 1932.
How the model reaches 55% for Estoril to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Estoril to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Estoril's ratings add 6 points and Felgueiras 1932's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Estoril's ratings50%+6
- Felgueiras 1932's ratings55%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Estoril at home · Felgueiras 1932 away
League matches only, this season — Estoril in the Primeira Liga, Felgueiras 1932 in the Segunda Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Estoril 10 in the Primeira Liga, Felgueiras 1932 10 in the Segunda Liga.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Estoril
- at GIL Vicente29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 20%
- vs Vitória SC6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 30%
- vs Santa Clara13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 25%
- at Sporting CP20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 8%
- vs Alverca27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
Felgueiras 1932
- vs FC Porto B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Portimonense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Torreense14 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
- at União de Leiria20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 24%
- vs Academica27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.