FC Seoul
vs
Jeju United FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: FC Seoul 1–0 Jeju United FC
The model makes it 43% FC Seoul, 29% draw, 28% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.55, Jeju United FC 1.00.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Seoul at 43% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC
FC Seoul
- L1-2away to Pohang Steelers20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Jeonbuk Motors12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC8 September 2026
- W1-0Incheon United5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Gwangju FC30 August 2026
Jeju United FC
- W1-0away to Gangwon FC20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bucheon FC 199512 September 2026
- W1-0away to Gwangju FC9 September 2026
- D0-0Ulsan Hyundai FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Daejeon Citizen30 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Seoul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Seoul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jeju United FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Jeju United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 25 | +31 | 62 |
| 3 | Jeju United FC | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Seoul and Jeju United FC
FC Seoul
- P. Klimala5 goals
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assists
Jeju United FC
- Matheus Aiás3 goals2 assists
- Italo Moreira3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Seoul carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.55 for Jeju United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for FC Seoul and 1.00 for Jeju United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Seoul rate 0.91 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeju United FC rate 0.65 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Seoul a 100% chance of the title and Jeju United FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Seoul the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Seoul against 1 for Jeju United FC. FC Seoul's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.21 for Jeju United FC.