10 October 2026, 05:00 UTC

FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC K League 1 prediction & result

Seoul World Cup Stadium, Seoul
Referee: Kim Jong-hyeok
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Seoul 2-1 Jeju United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% FC Seoul, 28% draw, 25% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Seoul at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Seoul97%Draw3%Jeju United FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kim Jin-Su
13'
🔁Lee Seung-moout: Son Jeong-Beom
39'
45'
🔁Italo Moreira Barcelosout: Lee Kun-hee
45'
🔁Kim Shin-jinout: Kwon Gi-min
⚽Moon Seon-minassist: Choi Jun
46'
61'
🔁Jeong Woonout: Choi Byung-Wook
72'
⚽Lee Kun-heeassist: Kim Ryun-sung
⚽Patryk Klimalaassist: Moon Seon-min
78'
🔁Anderson Oliveiraout: Jeong Hyeon-Woo
80'
Son Jeong-Beom
82'
83'
🔁Jang Min-gyuout: Lee Chang-Min
84'
Tobias Figueiredo
🔁Moon Seon-minout: Hwang Do-yoon
84'
85'
🔁Julien Celestineout: Park Chang-Jun
Juan Antonio Ros Martínez
90+9'

Match stats — FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC

53%Possession47%
11Shots8
5On target2
1Corners4

Line-ups

FC Seoul 4-4-2
  • 25Gu Sung-YunG
  • 16Choi JunD
  • 5Yazan Al ArabD
  • 37Juan AntonioD
  • 22Kim Jin-SuD
  • 7Jeong Seung-WonM
  • 8Lee Seung-MoM
  • 6H. BabecM
  • 10Anderson OliveiraM
  • 27Moon Seon-MinF
  • 9P. KlimalaF
Substitutes
  • 26Baek Jong-BeomG
  • 19Cheon Seong-HoonF
  • 41Hwang Do-YoonM
  • 14Hyeon-Woo JeongF
  • 20Lee Han-DoD
  • 4Lee Sang-MinD
  • 66Park Soo-IlD
  • 99G. SamuelF
  • 42J. SonM
Coach: Kim Gi-Dong
Jeju United FC 4-4-2
  • 1Kim Dong-JunG
  • 17Yu In-SooD
  • 2Tobias FigueiredoD
  • 3J. CélestineD
  • 13Chung WoonD
  • 40Kim Ryun-SeongM
  • 5Italo MoreiraM
  • 20Jang Min-GyuM
  • 33Park Su-BinM
  • 18Kim Sin-JinF
  • 94Emerson NeguebaF
Substitutes
  • 24Choi Byung-WookM
  • 81Heo Ja-UngG
  • 41Kim Jae-WooD
  • 6Gi-min KwonD
  • 10Lee Kun-HeeF
  • 8Lee Chang-MinM
  • 47Min-jae ParkF
  • 7Chang-Jun ParkF
  • 22E. ÇinariF
Coach: Sérgio Costa

Form going into FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC

FC Seoul

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Pohang Steelers20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Jeonbuk Motors12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC8 September 2026
  • W1-0Incheon United5 September 2026
  • W5-2away to Gwangju FC30 August 2026

Jeju United FC

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Gangwon FC20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Bucheon FC 199512 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Gwangju FC9 September 2026
  • D0-0Ulsan Hyundai FC5 September 2026
  • W3-1Daejeon Citizen30 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Seoul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Seoul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jeju United FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Jeju United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Seoul3520786232+3067
7Jeju United FC351212114139+248

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC

  • 9 May 2026Jeju United FC 2–1 FC SeoulK League 1
  • 15 March 2026Jeju United FC 1–2 FC SeoulK League 1
  • 23 July 2025Jeju United FC 3–2 FC SeoulK League 1
  • 31 May 2025FC Seoul 1–3 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 15 February 2025Jeju United FC 2–0 FC SeoulK League 1

Leading scorers: FC Seoul and Jeju United FC

FC Seoul

GoalsAssists

  • P. Klimala80

Jeju United FC

GoalsAssists

  • Emerson Negueba62
  • Lee Kun-Hee41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Seoul beat Jeju United FC 2–1. The model had made a win for FC Seoul its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Moon Seon-min 46' for FC Seoul, Lee Kun-hee 72' for Jeju United FC, Patryk Klimala 78' for FC Seoul.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jeju United FC a 64.4% chance to finish in the top four: 91.5% after a win, 66.5% after a draw, 51.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.6%, 12.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our K League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Seoul v Jeju United FC has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is FC Seoul's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. FC Seoul win47%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Jeju United FC win25%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.