Incheon United
vs
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Incheon United 2–1 Daejeon Citizen
The model makes it 42% Incheon United, 26% draw, 32% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Incheon United 1.99, Daejeon Citizen 1.60.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Incheon United wins, grey are draws, red are Daejeon Citizen wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Incheon United at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen
Incheon United
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors30 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 August 2026
Daejeon Citizen
- D2-2Pohang Steelers12 September 2026
- W3-2FC Anyang9 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bucheon FC 19955 September 2026
- L1-3away to Jeju United FC30 August 2026
- W2-1Ulsan Hyundai FC26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Incheon United | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 37 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša9 goals
- M. Ferrier4 goals
Daejeon Citizen
- Jeong Jae-Hee4 goals1 assists
- M. Ishida3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Incheon United carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.52 for Daejeon Citizen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Incheon United and 1.60 for Daejeon Citizen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Incheon United rate 0.65 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Daejeon Citizen rate 0.90 and 1.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Daejeon Citizen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Incheon United against 1.6 for Daejeon Citizen. Incheon United's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.88 for Daejeon Citizen.