Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Incheon United 1-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Incheon United, 27% draw, 33% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Incheon United at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen
Line-ups
- 1Kim Dong-HeonG
- 39Kim Myung-soonD
- 4Kim Gun-HeeD
- 2IbizaD
- 32Lee Ju-YongD
- 72Lee Chung-YongM
- 15Seo Jae-MinM
- 5Lee Myoung-JooM
- 70Leandro RibeiroM
- 9S. MugosaF
- 99M. FerrierF
- 21Lee Tae-HuiG
- 3Lee Sang-GiD
- 13Choi Seung-guD
- 28Kim Yeon-SooD
- 11GersoF
- 17Kim Seong-MinM
- 23Jeong Chi-InM
- 26Lee Min-HyukM
- 30Kim Young-whanM
- 1Lee Chang-GeunG
- 6Kang Yun-SungD
- 45Ha Chang-RaeD
- 98A. KrivotsyukD
- 16Lee Myung-JaeD
- 44Lee Soon-MinM
- 8Victor BobsinM
- 27Jeong Jae-HeeM
- 7M. IshidaM
- 17G. LudwigsonM
- 10Joo Min-KyuF
- 31Kim Min-SooG
- 4Cho Sung-GwonD
- 13Kim Jin-YaD
- 14Kim Jun-BeomM
- 20H. LeeM
- 41Park Byung-chanM
- 9Diogo OliveiraF
- 11Um Won-SangM
- 19Seo Jin-SuF
Form going into Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen
Incheon United
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors30 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 August 2026
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1
- D2-2Pohang Steelers12 September 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen
- 5 May 2026Daejeon Citizen 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 18 March 2026Incheon United 1–3 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 10 November 2024Incheon United 1–2 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 17 August 2024Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 18 May 2024Daejeon Citizen 0–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša111
- M. Ferrier51
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Diogo de Oliveira52
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Incheon United at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Ferrier 35' for Incheon United, Kang Yun-Sung 90' for Daejeon Citizen.
How the call on Incheon United v Daejeon Citizen has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Incheon United's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Incheon United win40%▲ +6
- Draw27%=
- Daejeon Citizen win33%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.