Ilves vs HJK Helsinki Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Ilves 1-2 HJK Helsinki.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Ilves, 30% draw, 27% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 12F. KrkalicG
- 24V. KumpuD
- 5S. VaisanenD
- 16T. MiettunenD
- 4O. PetterssonD
- 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
- 28J. KiloM
- 13K. WalliusM
- 8M. StjopinM
- 14A. PopovitchM
- 9T. HytonenF
- 31R. LeislahtiG
- 19G. BambaD
- 3M. RaleD
- 6Y. RaapD
- 22O. MultalaM
- 33Y. SackoM
- 45E. TamminenF
- 17S. BaranovM
- 11H. CoulibalyF
- 44M. MarkovicG
- 13K. SimojokiD
- 6V. TikkanenD
- 3T. CissokhoD
- 14L. MontanoD
- 22L. MollerM
- 4A. RingM
- 8P. MentuM
- 11M. KirilovM
- 20T. PukkiF
- 7A. CicaleM
- 1J. OstG
- 30J. SamoojaG
- 17N. AlhoD
- 31M. BogicevicD
- 9M. BorchersF
- 15J. KallinenM
- 32M. GueyeM
- 26L. LappalainenM
- 21P. NdirF
Form going into Ilves vs HJK Helsinki
Ilves
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
HJK Helsinki
- L2-3Gnistan23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ilves | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 34 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ilves vs HJK Helsinki
- 1 July 2026HJK Helsinki 2–1 IlvesSuomen Cup
- 16 May 2026HJK Helsinki 2–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 30 October 2025Ilves 3–1 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
- 29 September 2025HJK Helsinki 2–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 11 August 2025HJK Helsinki 5–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 5 April 2025Ilves 3–2 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Ilves and HJK Helsinki
Ilves
- T. Hytönen7 goals
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- E. Tamminen3 goals2 assists
HJK Helsinki
- M. Borchers4 goals
- T. Pukki3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.