Sirius vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sirius, 25% draw, 26% Malmo FF — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sirius at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sirius vs Malmo FF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34D. CelicG
- 5H. CastegrenD
- 2M. SoumahD
- 4T. AnkerD
- 22O. KrusnellD
- 10M. HeierM
- 6M. LindbergM
- 25O. AdinduM
- 24V. SvenssonM
- 7J. PerssonM
- 11I. BjerkeboF
- 1I. DiawaraG
- 15S. SandbergD
- 20V. EkstromD
- 18A. WikmanM
- 21C. NildenM
- 30Z. VancsaM
- 17N. JonssonF
- 36A. LjungbergF
- 9J. UnekenF
- 1R. OlsenG
- 17J. StrygerD
- 5A. DjuricD
- 2S. GregersenD
- 25BusanelloD
- 37A. SkogmarM
- 45A. HoogM
- 28J. MilosavljevicM
- 47T. LundberghM
- 9D. GarciaF
- 29S. HaksabanovicF
- 27J. DahlinG
- 44M. PalssonD
- 23N. JohnD
- 4B. KurtulusD
- 6Y. KarabelyovM
- 42V. JeppssonM
- 20E. BotheimF
- 32D. T. GudjohnsenF
- 39I. AssibuF
Form going into Sirius vs Malmo FF
Sirius
- L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
Malmo FF
- L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 28 | +24 | 51 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sirius vs Malmo FF
- 31 August 2026Sirius 0–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 23 April 2026Malmo FF 2–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 5 October 2025Sirius 5–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 18 April 2025Malmo FF 1–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 27 July 2024Malmo FF 0–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 19 July 2024Sirius 3–4 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Sirius and Malmo FF
Sirius
- R. Ure15 goals2 assists
- I. Bjerkebo13 goals6 assists
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.