Sirius
vs
Malmo FF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 60% Sirius, 21% draw, 19% Malmo FF — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Sirius 2.18, Malmo FF 1.17.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sirius
- L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026
- D2-2IF Brommapojkarna10 August 2026
- W2-0away to Halmstad3 August 2026
- W4-1IFK Goteborg26 July 2026
- W3-1away to IF Elfsborg19 July 2026
Malmo FF
- W1-0away to Gais16 August 2026
- L1-2Degerfors IF9 August 2026
- W2-1away to IF Brommapojkarna2 August 2026
- L1-2IF Elfsborg26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Kalmar FF20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 23 | +24 | 42 |
| 6 | Malmo FF | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 27 | +5 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Sirius vs Malmo FF
- 23 April 2026Malmo FF 2–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 5 October 2025Sirius 5–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 18 April 2025Malmo FF 1–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 27 July 2024Malmo FF 0–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 19 July 2024Sirius 3–4 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 28 August 2023Sirius 1–3 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers
Sirius
- R. Ure15 goals2 assists
- I. Bjerkebo13 goals5 assists
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sirius carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.47 for Malmo FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sirius W-W-W-D-L; Malmo FF D-L-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Sirius and 1.17 for Malmo FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sirius rate 0.85 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malmo FF rate 0.63 and 1.36.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sirius a 92.7% chance of the title and Malmo FF 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sirius against 1.17 for Malmo FF. Sirius's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.36 for Malmo FF.