AC Oulu
vs
SJK
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 43% AC Oulu, 24% draw, 33% SJK — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.74, SJK 1.51.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
AC Oulu
- L2-3Inter Turku16 August 2026
- L0-1HJK Helsinki9 August 2026
- W1-0Ilves2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Mariehamn25 July 2026
- L0-2Gnistan18 July 2026
SJK
- L0-2away to Mariehamn15 August 2026
- D2-2Gnistan7 August 2026
- W3-0HJK Helsinki3 August 2026
- L1-2away to FF Jaro24 July 2026
- L0-2KuPS18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Oulu | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | SJK | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AC Oulu carry a model rating of 5.8 against 5.88 for SJK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): AC Oulu L-D-W-L-L; SJK L-L-W-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for AC Oulu and 1.51 for SJK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Oulu rate 0.34 in attack and 2.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SJK rate 0.39 and 2.70.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Oulu the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for AC Oulu against 1.51 for SJK. AC Oulu's attack/defence rating is 0.34/2.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/2.7 for SJK.