31 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Mariehamn vs FF Jaro Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Mariehamn
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Mariehamn 2-0 FF Jaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Mariehamn, 30% draw, 26% FF Jaro — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mariehamn at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mariehamn99%Draw1%FF Jaro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Adam Larsson
43'
49'
Kaius Hardén
52'
Jesper Svenungsen Skau
60'
🔁V. Vuorinenout: J. Remesaho
⚽A. Larsson
62'
69'
🔁K. Hardenout: A. Bjonback
🔁A. Larssonout: T. Jakobsen
73'
⚽T. Jakobsenassist: J. Svedberg
75'
76'
🔁O. Kass Kawoout: V. Lofs
76'
🔁A. Vidjeskogout: J. Vikstrom
Jonathan Svedberg
77'
77'
Valde Lofs
🔁V. Widlundout: M. Hyvonen
80'
🔁A. Bergvikout: A. Stroud
80'

Line-ups

Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. LundG
  • 27L. RichtnerD
  • 5T. KoivistoD
  • 53F. GyamfiD
  • 31S. NgulubeD
  • 8J. HeydenM
  • 20E. PatutM
  • 11J. SvedbergM
  • 14A. BergvikM
  • 23V. WidlundD
  • 7A. LarssonF
Substitutes
  • 32A. GustafssonG
  • 15O. MelanderM
  • 3A. SoiniemiD
  • 64M. HyvonenM
  • 18A. StroudM
  • 43L. AnderssonF
  • 26M. JanssonM
  • 19T. JakobsenM
  • 22A. OujlouqD
Coach: Roberth Bjorknesjo
FF Jaro 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. VitsG
  • 21J. MyrevikD
  • 7J. SkauD
  • 25G. KocsisM
  • 19F. O. NessD
  • 8O. Kass KawoM
  • 16A. VidjeskogM
  • 91V. VuorinenM
  • 22K. HardenM
  • 77A. SabriyeM
  • 9L. ZetterstromF
Substitutes
  • 12J. SnellmanG
  • 6J. BrunellD
  • 2F. KassD
  • 5A. BjonbackD
  • 20T. SoderstromD
  • 24V. LofsM
  • 42J. RemesahoM
  • 18E. HolmangF
  • 27J. VikstromF
Coach: Jens Karlsson

Form going into Mariehamn vs FF Jaro

Mariehamn

  • W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026

FF Jaro

  • L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Mariehamn2545162047-2717
6FF Jaro2538142048-2817

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs FF Jaro

  • 23 May 2026FF Jaro 3–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 28 September 2025FF Jaro 2–3 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 6 July 2025FF Jaro 1–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 5 April 2025Mariehamn 0–2 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
  • 17 September 2015FF Jaro 0–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 19 July 2015Mariehamn 4–3 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.