Mariehamn
vs
FF Jaro
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 41% Mariehamn, 29% draw, 30% FF Jaro — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mariehamn 1.34, FF Jaro 1.11.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mariehamn
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Turku PS1 August 2026
- D1-1AC Oulu25 July 2026
- L0-2Lahti20 July 2026
FF Jaro
- L0-3away to HJK Helsinki16 August 2026
- L1-3VPS8 August 2026
- L0-2away to Lahti1 August 2026
- W2-1SJK24 July 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mariehamn | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 11 | 41 | -30 | 8 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Mariehamn
No league goals recorded yet.
FF Jaro
- H. Sjögrell5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mariehamn carry a model rating of 5.8 against 5.86 for FF Jaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Mariehamn L-D-L-L-W; FF Jaro D-W-L-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Mariehamn and 1.11 for FF Jaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mariehamn rate 0.30 in attack and 2.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FF Jaro rate 0.32 and 2.36.
That points to 44% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FF Jaro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mariehamn the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mariehamn against 1.11 for FF Jaro. Mariehamn's attack/defence rating is 0.3/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.32/2.36 for FF Jaro.