Gnistan
vs
Turku PS
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 25% Gnistan, 23% draw, 52% Turku PS — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Gnistan 1.24, Turku PS 1.88.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gnistan
- D2-2away to SJK7 August 2026
- L0-1KuPS1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Inter Turku26 July 2026
- W2-0away to AC Oulu18 July 2026
- W4-2Mariehamn11 July 2026
Turku PS
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
- D1-1away to KuPS9 August 2026
- W3-0Mariehamn1 August 2026
- L0-1away to HJK Helsinki26 July 2026
- L1-3Ilves20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gnistan | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 29 |
| 7 | Turku PS | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gnistan
- A. Akinyemi3 goals
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gnistan carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.42 for Turku PS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gnistan W-W-W-L-D; Turku PS L-L-W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Gnistan and 1.88 for Turku PS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gnistan rate 0.49 in attack and 2.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Turku PS rate 0.56 and 1.34.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gnistan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Turku PS the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Gnistan against 1.88 for Turku PS. Gnistan's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.34 for Turku PS.