Gnistan vs Turku PS Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Gnistan 1-1 Turku PS.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Gnistan, 27% draw, 24% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gnistan at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1O. VirtanenG
- 24R. GnanouD
- 67A. ObileyeD
- 3RuxiD
- 23S. YlatupaM
- 31A. JouhiM
- 15G. EuropaeusM
- 12E. Arko-MensahD
- 26R. EremenkoF
- 17A. AkinyemiF
- 19B. MilovanovD
- 13O. LyberopoulosG
- 40J. OjalaD
- 2B. DahlstromD
- 25N. RossiD
- 27O. HannulaM
- 14S. EremenkoM
- 10J. LatonenF
- 7A. AtarahF
- 11D. PerezF
- 1E. HenrikssonG
- 2O. HaggstromD
- 14M. HradeckyD
- 25A. TambaD
- 15C. AzongnitodeD
- 6P. JuvantenyD
- 22T. ZaalM
- 10M. KonkkolaM
- 29A. MuzaciM
- 11E. VauhkonenM
- 44N. VeinbergsF
- 35D. LauriG
- 24N. TaloD
- 28T. VakipartaM
- 17A. SihvonenD
- 26L. IkonenM
- 41S. AniniF
- 9L. IvanovicF
- 20M. KauppilaD
Form going into Gnistan vs Turku PS
Gnistan
- W3-2away to HJK Helsinki23 August 2026
Turku PS
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gnistan | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 41 |
| 3 | Turku PS | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gnistan vs Turku PS
- 24 April 2026Turku PS 1–1 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 14 February 2026Turku PS 0–2 GnistanLeague Cup
- 16 March 2024Turku PS 2–0 GnistanFriendlies Clubs
- 17 September 2023Gnistan 2–0 Turku PSYkkönen
- 23 July 2023Gnistan 0–3 Turku PSYkkönen
- 13 May 2023Turku PS 0–2 GnistanYkkönen
Leading scorers: Gnistan and Turku PS
Gnistan
- A. Akinyemi3 goals
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.