Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Estudiantes La Plata.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Velez Sarsfield, 27% draw, 32% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velez Sarsfield at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes La Plata
Line-ups
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarciaD
- 32T. SilveroD
- 2E. MammanaD
- 3E. GomezD
- 29R. AliendroM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 11M. PellegriniM
- 37J. PolicellaM
- 18S. EscobarM
- 77R. MartinezF
- 23F. SanguinettiG
- 16L. MagallanD
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 47A. PereyraD
- 22M. LanziniM
- 5C. BaezaM
- 48L. FelerM
- 17A. VeronF
- 35M. AriasF
- 16F. MusleraG
- 20E. MezaD
- 14L. Gonzalez PirezD
- 24T. PalaciosD
- 13G. BenedettiD
- 8Gabriel NevesM
- 22A. CastroM
- 18E. CetreM
- 31B. RodriguezM
- 28B. AguirreM
- 19A. GaichF
- 1F. IacovichG
- 40E. MancusoD
- 4S. NunezD
- 7J. SosaM
- 39J. EliasM
- 21L. PioviM
- 34M. MonsalveM
- 32J. CorreaF
- 9G. CarrilloF
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes La Plata
Velez Sarsfield
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra29 August 2026
- D2-2away to River Plate23 August 2026
- D1-1Defensa Y Justicia17 August 2026
- D1-1away to Boca Juniors8 August 2026
- W1-0Independiente3 August 2026
Estudiantes La Plata
- D0-0Newell's Old Boys31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sarmiento Junin23 August 2026
- W4-0Gimnasia La Plata15 August 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Riestra8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors5 August 2026
What these results say
- Velez Sarsfield went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 | Estudiantes La Plata | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes La Plata
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez101
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.