Houston Dynamo
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Houston Dynamo 1–0 Sporting Kansas City
The model makes it 44% Houston Dynamo, 29% draw, 27% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.68, Sporting Kansas City 1.07.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Houston Dynamo wins, grey are draws, red are Sporting Kansas City wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Houston Dynamo at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
- D0-0San Jose Earthquakes30 August 2026
- L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
Sporting Kansas City
- W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026
- D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 43 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City
- 2 August 2026Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme13 goals6 assists
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Houston Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.4 for Sporting Kansas City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.07 for Sporting Kansas City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Houston Dynamo rate 0.57 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Kansas City rate 0.72 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Houston Dynamo a 10.2% chance of the title and Sporting Kansas City 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Houston Dynamo the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Houston Dynamo against 1.07 for Sporting Kansas City. Houston Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.81 for Sporting Kansas City.