27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Referee: Tim Ford
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Houston Dynamo 0-2 Sporting Kansas City.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Houston Dynamo, 26% draw, 21% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Houston Dynamo at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Houston Dynamo0%Draw1%Sporting Kansas City99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Justin Reynolds
27'
⚽André Luizassist: Stephen Afrifa
45'
⚽Calvin Harrisassist: André Luiz
Héctor Herrera
45+3'
45+4'
Taylor Calheira
45+6'
André Luiz
Antônio Carlos
54'
🔁Franco Negriout: Felipe·De Andrade Vieira
56'
62'
🔁André Luizout: Ruben Ramos Jr
68'
Stephen Afrifa
🔁Lawrence Ennaliout: Marcelo Saracchi
71'
🔁Ibrahim Aliyuout: Lyle Foster
71'
🔁Agustín Bouzatout: Matthew Arana
71'
72'
🔁Justin Reynoldsout: Jacob Bartlett
72'
🔁Calvin Harrisout: Owen Wolff
79'
🔁Taylor Calheiraout: Seymour Garfield-Reid
80'
🔁Stephen Afrifaout: Zorhan Bassong
🔁Mateusz Boguszout: Duncan McGuire
82'

Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City

51%Possession49%
21Shots10
4On target4
8Corners3

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo 4-4-2
  • 31J. BondG
  • 11L. EnnaliD
  • 3Antônio CarlosD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 24A. IbrahimM
  • 6ArturM
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 19M. BoguszM
  • 30A. BouzatF
  • 20GuilhermeF
Substitutes
  • 23D. McGuireF
  • 22M. AranaM
  • 17N. MarkanichF
  • 9L. FosterF
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 18D. SamassékouM
  • 4M. SaracchiD
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
Coach: Ben Olsen
Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 13J. ReynoldsD
  • 15Jansen MillerD
  • 28Wyatt MeyerD
  • 18E. KarićD
  • 11André LuizM
  • 4L. JohnsenM
  • 20K. AgyabengM
  • 14C. HarrisM
  • 19T. CalheiraF
  • 17S. AfrifaF
Substitutes
  • 16J. BartlettD
  • 33O. WolffM
  • 22Z. BassongD
  • 29S. ReidF
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 24R. RamosF
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 93M. SuleymanovF
Coach: R. Wicky

Form going into Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City

Houston Dynamo

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
  • L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
  • W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
  • D0-0San Jose Earthquakes30 August 2026

Sporting Kansas City

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
  • W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
  • L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
  • L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.
  • Sporting Kansas City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Houston Dynamo3214994239+351
15Sporting Kansas City3264223880-4222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City

  • 2 August 2026Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 19 October 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 1 June 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 12 May 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 25 February 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

Sporting Kansas City

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting Kansas City won 2–0 at Houston Dynamo. The model had leaned towards a win for Houston Dynamo at 53% and given a win for Sporting Kansas City 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: André Luiz 27' for Sporting Kansas City, Calvin Harris 45' for Sporting Kansas City. Sent off: Héctor Herrera (Houston Dynamo) 45+3'.

How the call on Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City has moved

First published on 13 Sep at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Houston Dynamo's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Houston Dynamo win53%▲ +9
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Sporting Kansas City win21%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.