Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Seattle Sounders 3-1 Minnesota United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Seattle Sounders, 28% draw, 31% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Seattle Sounders at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC
Line-ups
- 26A. ThomasG
- 16A. RoldanD
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 25J. RagenD
- 5N. ToloD
- 31H. DotsonM
- 7C. RoldanM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 11A. RusnákM
- 8C. ClarkM
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 85K. Kossa-RienziM
- 37S. BrunellM
- 90S. GomezM
- 24S. FreiG
- 28Y. GómezD
- 45P. KingstonM
- 35Antino LopezD
- 4R. SailorD
- 12D. CallenderG
- 28J. DíazD
- 15M. BoxallD
- 23M. DugganD
- 3K. DuncanM
- 30O. GeneM
- 20W. TrappM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 8T. ChancalayM
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 27D. TaylorD
- 11M. MaloneF
- 16A. JacksonM
- 21B. HlongwaneF
- 18M. GonzalezF
- 5N. RomeroD
- 24J. GresselM
- 94Kayne RizvanovichG
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
- D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy13 September 2026
- D0-0New York Red Bulls6 September 2026
- D2-2Chicago Fire29 August 2026
Minnesota United FC
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 43 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC
- 22 March 2026Minnesota United FC 0–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 8 November 2025Minnesota United FC 3–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 4 November 2025Seattle Sounders 4–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 October 2025Minnesota United FC 0–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 17 August 2025Minnesota United FC 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Minnesota United FC
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah183
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Seattle Sounders beat Minnesota United FC 3–1. The model had made a win for Seattle Sounders its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jordan Morris 16' for Seattle Sounders, Hassani Dotson 35' for Seattle Sounders, Anthony Markanich 57' for Minnesota United FC, Paul Arriola 83' for Seattle Sounders.
How the call on Seattle Sounders v Minnesota United FC has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Seattle Sounders's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Seattle Sounders win41%▲ +4
- Draw28%=
- Minnesota United FC win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.